Uncertainty analysis of assembly and core-level calculations with application to CASMO-4E and SIMULATE-3

The topic of this paper is the development of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis capability to the CASMO-4/CASMO-4E – SIMULATE-3 code sequence in the context of the OECD/NEA benchmark ‘Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling for Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs’ (UAM). The developed capability uses a two-step approach. In the first step, Uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated to two-group cross sections, diffusion coefficients, and assembly discontinuity factors. This is carried out using deterministic, perturbation-theory-based uncertainty analysis methodology. In the second step, a global covariance matrix, characterizing the uncertainties of the group constants, is formed, and the uncertainties are propagated through a full core SIMULATE calculation using a stochastic approach. This system enables the analysis of nuclear data related uncertainties in assembly-homogenized group constants, assembly discontinuity factors, and pin powers, as well as full core results such as multiplication factor and power distribution. The mathematical background of the deterministic uncertainty analysis methodology is reviewed and the main conclusions related to the implementation are summarized. Numerical results are presented for the full core Three Mile Island model in exercise I-3 of the UAM benchmark at hot zero power with all rods out and inserted. The computational efficiency of the calculations is discussed.