Treating uncertain criteria and stakeholder preference information in environmental multi-criteria decision problems

R. Lahdelma*, Pekka Salminen

*Tämän työn vastaava kirjoittaja

Tutkimustuotos: Artikkeli kirjassa/konferenssijulkaisussaConference article in proceedingsScientificvertaisarvioitu

Abstrakti

Environmental planning and decision-making processes are difficult, because they involve the evaluation of several alternatives in terms of multiple non-commensurate criteria, and a choice must be made considering the points of view of many different stakeholders with conflicting preferences. Much of the associated information can be highly imprecise or uncertain. Successful multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods for such problems should be able to represent explicitly not only the criteria and preference information, but also the associated uncertainty. We describe how to represent imprecise and/or uncertain criteria measurements and stakeholder preferences through probability distributions, and how to efficiently aggregate this information using stochastic simulation. As an example, we reanalyze the problem of choosing among different options for developing the Helsinki general cargo harbor. We perform the analysis by using the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA-2) method with multivariate Gaussian distributions.

AlkuperäiskieliEnglanti
OtsikkoManagement Using Comparative Risk Assessment and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
AlaotsikkoManagement Using Comparative Risk Assessment and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
ToimittajatIgor Linkov, Gregory A. Kiker, Richard J. Wenning
KustantajaSpringer
Sivut233-249
Sivumäärä17
ISBN (elektroninen)978-1-4020-5802-8
ISBN (painettu)978-1-4020-5800-4
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 2007
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA4 Artikkeli konferenssijulkaisussa
TapahtumaNATO Advanced Research Workshop - Thessaloniki , Kreikka
Kesto: 17 huhtik. 200521 huhtik. 2005

Julkaisusarja

NimiNATO Security through Science Series, Series C: Environmental Security
KustantajaSpringer Netherlands
NumeroPart 3
ISSN (painettu)1871-4668

Workshop

WorkshopNATO Advanced Research Workshop
LyhennettäARW
Maa/AlueKreikka
KaupunkiThessaloniki
Ajanjakso17/04/200521/04/2005

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