Temporal Analysis of Adverse Weather Conditions Affecting Wheat Production in Finland

Vladimir Kuzmanovski*, Mika Sulkava, Taru Palosuo, Jaakko Hollmén

*Tämän työn vastaava kirjoittaja

Tutkimustuotos: Artikkeli kirjassa/konferenssijulkaisussaConference contributionScientificvertaisarvioitu

Abstrakti

Growing conditions of agricultural crops are increasingly affected by global climate change. Not only the overall agro-climatic conditions are changing, but also climatic variability and the occurrence of extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. This will affect crop yields and impact food supply both locally and globally. Located in the north, with short growing seasons and long days, Finland is not an exception. Drought- and temperature-related adverse events have been identified as most harmful abiotic factors on the production. Farmers try to mitigate with a range of management options. However, they need to adapt them over time as the climate is changing. This study aims to identify the most adverse weather events that affect the spring wheat production in Finland and to ascertain if there have been changes on the most harmful abiotic weather-related factors during the last decades. Adverse weather conditions studied include frequency and length of periods with exceptional snow, drought, intensive rainfall and extreme heat. This was studied by modeling the wheat production using the adverse weather events as predictors with different lengths of training period (consecutive number of years) using LASSO regression. The results reveal clear shift from early season drought and periodical intensive rainfall to the adverse effects of frequent and long periods of extremely high temperatures during later development stages.

AlkuperäiskieliEnglanti
OtsikkoDiscovery Science 22nd International Conference, DS 2019, Proceedings
ToimittajatPetra Kralj Novak, Sašo Džeroski, Tomislav Šmuc
Sivut176-185
Sivumäärä10
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 1 tammikuuta 2019
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA4 Artikkeli konferenssijulkaisuussa
TapahtumaInternational Conference on Discovery Science - Split, Kroatia
Kesto: 28 lokakuuta 201930 lokakuuta 2019
Konferenssinumero: 22

Julkaisusarja

NimiLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Vuosikerta11828 LNAI
ISSN (painettu)0302-9743
ISSN (elektroninen)1611-3349

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Discovery Science
LyhennettäDIS
MaaKroatia
KaupunkiSplit
Ajanjakso28/10/201930/10/2019

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  • Siteeraa tätä

    Kuzmanovski, V., Sulkava, M., Palosuo, T., & Hollmén, J. (2019). Temporal Analysis of Adverse Weather Conditions Affecting Wheat Production in Finland. teoksessa P. Kralj Novak, S. Džeroski, & T. Šmuc (Toimittajat), Discovery Science 22nd International Conference, DS 2019, Proceedings (Sivut 176-185). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vuosikerta 11828 LNAI). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33778-0_15