Road to robust prediction of choices in deterministic MCDM

Tommi Pajala, Pekka Korhonen, Jyrki Wallenius*

*Tämän työn vastaava kirjoittaja

Tutkimustuotos: LehtiartikkeliArticleScientificvertaisarvioitu

3 Sitaatiot (Scopus)

Abstrakti

We compare five different prediction methods (linear estimated weights, AHP weights, equal weights, logistic regression, and a lexicographic method) in their success rate for predicting preferences in pairwise choices. Students were asked to make pairwise comparisons between student apartments on four criteria: size, rent, travel time to the university and travel time to a (hobby) location of their choice. First ten choices were used to set up the estimation model, and subsequent ten choices are used for prediction. We find that the linear estimation method has the highest prediction success rate. Furthermore, the probability of predicting a choice correctly differs only slightly (by 0.1) between linear consistent and inconsistent subjects, ie. subjects whose preferences were consistent or inconsistent with a linear value function. This shows that in the absence of other preference information, a linear value function is suitable for prediction purposes.

AlkuperäiskieliEnglanti
Sivut229-235
Sivumäärä7
JulkaisuEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Vuosikerta259
Numero1
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - toukokuuta 2017
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Julkaistu artikkeli, soviteltu

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