Review of risk assessment for navigational safety and supported decisions in arctic waters

The study of Arctic navigation safety is becoming increasingly important due to the rise in commercial and strategic significance of Arctic shipping routes. To explore the state of risk assessment methodologies in the context of Arctic navigation safety, this paper conducts a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of 149 articles, along with an in-depth review of 22 articles. The analysis reveals that despite a surge in research focus since 2015, particularly regarding collision risks involving ship-to-ship and ship-to-ice encounters in the Northeast passage, substantial gaps exist in applying these models in practice. The study highlights that equipment failures are largely neglected in academic discussions, and the Northwest Passage is under-researched despite its operational challenges, such as difficulties in predicting ice conditions due to wind and currents from the North American continent, smaller navigation windows, and so forth. The most applied risk assessment models are identified for various decision-making contexts, acknowledging their methodological limitations. The paper concludes with a call for decision-oriented modelling techniques and the bridging of academic research with practical application. It recommends incorporation of overlooked risk factors, such as equipment failures, human error, and region-specific navigational challenges, to develop more robust and applicable risk assessment models for various decision scenarios.