Abstrakti
Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.
| Alkuperäiskieli | Englanti |
|---|---|
| Sivumäärä | 21 |
| Julkaisu | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
| Varhainen verkossa julkaisun päivämäärä | 2021 |
| DOI - pysyväislinkit | |
| Tila | Julkaistu - 28 tammikuuta 2021 |
| OKM-julkaisutyyppi | A1 Julkaistu artikkeli, soviteltu |
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Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent. / Roslin, Tomas; Antão, Laura; Hällfors, Maria; Meyke, Evgeniy; Lo, Coong; Tikhonov, Gleb; Delgado, Maria del Mar; Gurarie, Eliezer; Abadonova, Marina; Abduraimov, Ozodbek; Adrianova, Olga; Akimova, Tatiana; Akkiev, Muzhigit; Ananin, Aleksandr; Andreeva, Elena; Andriychuk, Natalia; Antipin, Maxim; Arzamascev, Konstantin; Babina, Svetlana; Babushkin, Miroslav; Bakin, Oleg; Barabancova, Anna; Basilskaja, Inna; Belova, Nina; Belyaeva, Natalia; Bespalova, Tatjana; Bisikalova, Evgeniya; Bobretsov, Anatoly; Bobrov, Vladimir; Bobrovskyi, Vadim; Bochkareva, Elena; Bogdanov, Gennady; Bolshakov, Vladimir; Bondarchuk, Svetlana; Bukharova, Evgeniya; Butunina, Alena; Buyvolov, Yuri; Buyvolova, Anna; Bykov, Yuri; Chakhireva, Elena; Chashchina, Olga; Cherenkova, Nadezhda; Chistjakov, Sergej; Chuhontseva, Svetlana; Davydov, Evgeniy A.; Demchenko, Viktor; Diadicheva, Elena; Dobrolyubov, Aleksandr; Dostoyevskaya, Ludmila; Drovnina, Svetlana; Drozdova, Zoya; Dubanaev, Akynaly; Dubrovsky, Yuriy; Elsukov, Sergey; Epova, Lidia; Ermakova, Olga; Ermakova, Olga S.; Ershkova, Elena; Esengeldenova, Aleksandra; Evstigneev, Oleg; Fedchenko, Irina; Fedotova, Violetta; Filatova, Tatiana; Gashev, Sergey; Gavrilov, Anatoliy; Gaydysh, Irina; Golovcov, Dmitrij; Goncharova, Nadezhda; Gorbunova, Elena; Gordeeva, Tatyana; Grishchenko, Vitaly; Gromyko, Ludmila; Hohryakov, Vladimir; Hritankov, Alexander; Ignatenko, Elena; Igosheva, Svetlana; Ivanova, Uliya; Ivanova, Natalya; Kalinkin, Yury; Kaygorodova, Evgeniya; Kazansky, Fedor; Kiseleva, Darya; Knorre, Anastasia; Kolpashikov, Leonid; Korobov, Evgenii; Korolyova, Helen; Korotkikh, Natalia; Kosenkov, Gennadiy; Kossenko, Sergey; Kotlugalyamova, Elvira; Kozlovsky, Evgeny; Kozsheechkin, Vladimir; Kozurak, Alla; Kozyr, Irina; Krasnopevtseva, Aleksandra; Kruglikov, Sergey; Kuberskaya, Olga; Kudryavtsev, Aleksey; Kulebyakina, Elena; Kulsha, Yuliia; Kupriyanova, Margarita; Kurbanbagamaev, Murad; Kutenkov, Anatoliy; Kutenkova, Nadezhda; Kuyantseva, Nadezhda; Kuznetsov, Andrey; Larin, Evgeniy; Lebedev, Pavel; Litvinov, Kirill; Luzhkova, Natalia; Mahmudov, Azizbek; Makovkina, Lidiya; Mamontov, Viktor; Mayorova, Svetlana; Megalinskaja, Irina; Meydus, Artur; Minin, Aleksandr; Mitrofanov, Oleg; Motruk, Mykhailo; Myslenkov, Aleksandr; Nasonova, Nina; Nemtseva, Natalia; Nesterova, Irina; Nezdoliy, Tamara; Niroda, Tatyana; Novikova, Tatiana; Panicheva, Darya; Pavlov, Alexey; Pavlova, Klara; Podolski, Sergei; Polikarpova, Natalja; Polyanskaya, Tatiana; Pospelov, Igor; Pospelova, Elena; Prokhorov, Ilya; Prokosheva, Irina; Puchnina, Lyudmila; Putrashyk, Ivan; Raiskaya, Julia; Rozhkov, Yuri; Rozhkova, Olga; Rudenko, Marina; Rybnikova, Irina; Rykova, Svetlana; Sahnevich, Miroslava; Samoylov, Alexander; Sanko, Valeri; Sapelnikova, Inna; Sazonov, Sergei; Selyunina, Zoya; Shalaeva, Ksenia; Shashkov, Maksim; Shcherbakov, Anatoliy; Shevchyk, Vasyl; Shubin, Sergej; Shujskaja, Elena; Sibgatullin, Rustam; Sikkila, Natalia; Sitnikova, Elena; Sivkov, Andrei; Skok, Nataliya; Skorokhodova, Svetlana; Smirnova, Elena; Sokolova, Galina; Sopin, Vladimir; Spasovski, Yurii; Stepanov, Sergei; Stratiy, Vitalіy; Strekalovskaya, Violetta; Sukhov, Alexander; Suleymanova, Guzalya; Sultangareeva, Lilija; Teleganova, Viktorija; Teplov, Viktor; Teplova, Valentina; Tertitsa, Tatiana; Timoshkin, Vladislav; Tirski, Dmitry; Tolmachev, Andrej; Tomilin, Aleksey; Tselishcheva, Ludmila; Turgunov, Mirabdulla; Tyukh, Yurij; Van, Polina; Van, Vladimir; Vasin, Aleksander; Vasina, Aleksandra; Vekliuk, Anatoliy; Vetchinnikova, Lidia; Vinogradov, Vladislav; Volodchenkov, Nikolay; Voloshina, Inna; Xoliqov, Tura; Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Eugenia; Yakovlev, Vladimir; Yakovleva, Marina; Yantser, Oksana; Yarema, Yurij; Zahvatov, Andrey; Zakharov, Valery; Zelenetskiy, Nicolay; Zheltukhin, Anatolii; Zubina, Tatyana; Kurhinen, Juri; Ovaskainen, Otso.
julkaisussa: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 28.01.2021.Tutkimustuotos: Lehtiartikkeli › Article › Scientific › vertaisarvioitu
TY - JOUR
T1 - Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent
AU - Roslin, Tomas
AU - Antão, Laura
AU - Hällfors, Maria
AU - Meyke, Evgeniy
AU - Lo, Coong
AU - Tikhonov, Gleb
AU - Delgado, Maria del Mar
AU - Gurarie, Eliezer
AU - Abadonova, Marina
AU - Abduraimov, Ozodbek
AU - Adrianova, Olga
AU - Akimova, Tatiana
AU - Akkiev, Muzhigit
AU - Ananin, Aleksandr
AU - Andreeva, Elena
AU - Andriychuk, Natalia
AU - Antipin, Maxim
AU - Arzamascev, Konstantin
AU - Babina, Svetlana
AU - Babushkin, Miroslav
AU - Bakin, Oleg
AU - Barabancova, Anna
AU - Basilskaja, Inna
AU - Belova, Nina
AU - Belyaeva, Natalia
AU - Bespalova, Tatjana
AU - Bisikalova, Evgeniya
AU - Bobretsov, Anatoly
AU - Bobrov, Vladimir
AU - Bobrovskyi, Vadim
AU - Bochkareva, Elena
AU - Bogdanov, Gennady
AU - Bolshakov, Vladimir
AU - Bondarchuk, Svetlana
AU - Bukharova, Evgeniya
AU - Butunina, Alena
AU - Buyvolov, Yuri
AU - Buyvolova, Anna
AU - Bykov, Yuri
AU - Chakhireva, Elena
AU - Chashchina, Olga
AU - Cherenkova, Nadezhda
AU - Chistjakov, Sergej
AU - Chuhontseva, Svetlana
AU - Davydov, Evgeniy A.
AU - Demchenko, Viktor
AU - Diadicheva, Elena
AU - Dobrolyubov, Aleksandr
AU - Dostoyevskaya, Ludmila
AU - Drovnina, Svetlana
AU - Drozdova, Zoya
AU - Dubanaev, Akynaly
AU - Dubrovsky, Yuriy
AU - Elsukov, Sergey
AU - Epova, Lidia
AU - Ermakova, Olga
AU - Ermakova, Olga S.
AU - Ershkova, Elena
AU - Esengeldenova, Aleksandra
AU - Evstigneev, Oleg
AU - Fedchenko, Irina
AU - Fedotova, Violetta
AU - Filatova, Tatiana
AU - Gashev, Sergey
AU - Gavrilov, Anatoliy
AU - Gaydysh, Irina
AU - Golovcov, Dmitrij
AU - Goncharova, Nadezhda
AU - Gorbunova, Elena
AU - Gordeeva, Tatyana
AU - Grishchenko, Vitaly
AU - Gromyko, Ludmila
AU - Hohryakov, Vladimir
AU - Hritankov, Alexander
AU - Ignatenko, Elena
AU - Igosheva, Svetlana
AU - Ivanova, Uliya
AU - Ivanova, Natalya
AU - Kalinkin, Yury
AU - Kaygorodova, Evgeniya
AU - Kazansky, Fedor
AU - Kiseleva, Darya
AU - Knorre, Anastasia
AU - Kolpashikov, Leonid
AU - Korobov, Evgenii
AU - Korolyova, Helen
AU - Korotkikh, Natalia
AU - Kosenkov, Gennadiy
AU - Kossenko, Sergey
AU - Kotlugalyamova, Elvira
AU - Kozlovsky, Evgeny
AU - Kozsheechkin, Vladimir
AU - Kozurak, Alla
AU - Kozyr, Irina
AU - Krasnopevtseva, Aleksandra
AU - Kruglikov, Sergey
AU - Kuberskaya, Olga
AU - Kudryavtsev, Aleksey
AU - Kulebyakina, Elena
AU - Kulsha, Yuliia
AU - Kupriyanova, Margarita
AU - Kurbanbagamaev, Murad
AU - Kutenkov, Anatoliy
AU - Kutenkova, Nadezhda
AU - Kuyantseva, Nadezhda
AU - Kuznetsov, Andrey
AU - Larin, Evgeniy
AU - Lebedev, Pavel
AU - Litvinov, Kirill
AU - Luzhkova, Natalia
AU - Mahmudov, Azizbek
AU - Makovkina, Lidiya
AU - Mamontov, Viktor
AU - Mayorova, Svetlana
AU - Megalinskaja, Irina
AU - Meydus, Artur
AU - Minin, Aleksandr
AU - Mitrofanov, Oleg
AU - Motruk, Mykhailo
AU - Myslenkov, Aleksandr
AU - Nasonova, Nina
AU - Nemtseva, Natalia
AU - Nesterova, Irina
AU - Nezdoliy, Tamara
AU - Niroda, Tatyana
AU - Novikova, Tatiana
AU - Panicheva, Darya
AU - Pavlov, Alexey
AU - Pavlova, Klara
AU - Podolski, Sergei
AU - Polikarpova, Natalja
AU - Polyanskaya, Tatiana
AU - Pospelov, Igor
AU - Pospelova, Elena
AU - Prokhorov, Ilya
AU - Prokosheva, Irina
AU - Puchnina, Lyudmila
AU - Putrashyk, Ivan
AU - Raiskaya, Julia
AU - Rozhkov, Yuri
AU - Rozhkova, Olga
AU - Rudenko, Marina
AU - Rybnikova, Irina
AU - Rykova, Svetlana
AU - Sahnevich, Miroslava
AU - Samoylov, Alexander
AU - Sanko, Valeri
AU - Sapelnikova, Inna
AU - Sazonov, Sergei
AU - Selyunina, Zoya
AU - Shalaeva, Ksenia
AU - Shashkov, Maksim
AU - Shcherbakov, Anatoliy
AU - Shevchyk, Vasyl
AU - Shubin, Sergej
AU - Shujskaja, Elena
AU - Sibgatullin, Rustam
AU - Sikkila, Natalia
AU - Sitnikova, Elena
AU - Sivkov, Andrei
AU - Skok, Nataliya
AU - Skorokhodova, Svetlana
AU - Smirnova, Elena
AU - Sokolova, Galina
AU - Sopin, Vladimir
AU - Spasovski, Yurii
AU - Stepanov, Sergei
AU - Stratiy, Vitalіy
AU - Strekalovskaya, Violetta
AU - Sukhov, Alexander
AU - Suleymanova, Guzalya
AU - Sultangareeva, Lilija
AU - Teleganova, Viktorija
AU - Teplov, Viktor
AU - Teplova, Valentina
AU - Tertitsa, Tatiana
AU - Timoshkin, Vladislav
AU - Tirski, Dmitry
AU - Tolmachev, Andrej
AU - Tomilin, Aleksey
AU - Tselishcheva, Ludmila
AU - Turgunov, Mirabdulla
AU - Tyukh, Yurij
AU - Van, Polina
AU - Van, Vladimir
AU - Vasin, Aleksander
AU - Vasina, Aleksandra
AU - Vekliuk, Anatoliy
AU - Vetchinnikova, Lidia
AU - Vinogradov, Vladislav
AU - Volodchenkov, Nikolay
AU - Voloshina, Inna
AU - Xoliqov, Tura
AU - Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Eugenia
AU - Yakovlev, Vladimir
AU - Yakovleva, Marina
AU - Yantser, Oksana
AU - Yarema, Yurij
AU - Zahvatov, Andrey
AU - Zakharov, Valery
AU - Zelenetskiy, Nicolay
AU - Zheltukhin, Anatolii
AU - Zubina, Tatyana
AU - Kurhinen, Juri
AU - Ovaskainen, Otso
PY - 2021/1/28
Y1 - 2021/1/28
N2 - Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.
AB - Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099985103&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7
DO - 10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85099985103
JO - NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
JF - NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
SN - 1758-678X
ER -