Operations planning during absolute uncertainty: A longitudinal case study of uncertainty transitions and operations planning adaptations in grocery supply chains

This study investigates how uncertainty propagates and transits in grocery supply chains after a disruption, and how operations planning adapts to the changes in uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic presented significant challenges for supply chains, causing sudden disruptions and increased uncertainty in demand, supply, capacity, and logistics. Drawing on a longitudinal multiple case study of 14 firms in the grocery supply chain during the COVID-19 crisis, we investigate the propagation and transition of uncertainty in the grocery supply chain during the first six months of the pandemic and explore how the firms’ operations planning and control adapted to the absolute uncertainty that rendered operations plans at all levels obsolete. We contribute to the literature on operations and supply chain uncertainty by highlighting the complex and interconnected nature of the sources of uncertainty in supply chains that lead to uncertainty propagation, and by identifying the generative mechanism by which the operations planning adaptations maintain availability during absolute uncertainty. Furthermore, we identify the intricate connections between operations planning adaptations and sources of uncertainty and the transition path from absolute uncertainty to a manageable risk.