Model-based decision processes for agenda building and project funding

Eeva Vilkkumaa

Model-based decision processes for agenda building and project funding

Julkaisun otsikon käännös: Malliperusteisia päätösprosesseja agendan rakentamiseen ja hankerahoitukseen

Eeva Vilkkumaa

Matematiikan ja systeemianalyysin laitos

Tutkimustuotos: Doctoral Thesis › Collection of Articles

Abstrakti

Organisaatiot pyrkivät ennakoimaan toimintaympäristönsä olennaisia kehityskulkuja ja linjaamaan näiden pohjalta strategisia prioriteetteja, joita tyypillisesti toteutetaan vastaavilla toimenpiteillä (esim. t&k-hankkeilla). Nämä toisiinsa kytkeytyvät prosessit – erityisesti ennakointi, strateginen priorisointi ja hankevalinta – voidaan kuvata päätöstehtävinä, joissa osajoukko tai portfolio vaihtoehtoja valitaan rajallisten resurssien ja muiden rajoitusten puitteissa. Portfoliopäätösanalyysin soveltaminen voi parantaa sekä valitun portfolio arvoa että päätösprosessien laatua ja läpinäkyvyyttä. Väitöskirjassa kehitetyt portfoliopäätösanalyyttiset menetelmät tukevat yllä kuvattuja päätösprosesseja erityisesti tilanteissa, joihin liittyy merkittäviä epävarmuuksia. Epävarmuutta mallinnetaan käypien parametrien joukoilla tai todennäköisyysjakaumilla. Menetelmät ottavat huomioon usean päätöksentekijän mahdollisesti ristiriitaiset mielipiteet; ne auttavat myös tunnistamaan sellaiset portfoliot, joilla organisaatiot voivat sopeutua erilaisiin tulevaisuuden näkymiin. Lisäksi menetelmät auttavat pienentämään niin kutsuttua päätöksen jälkeistä pettymystä, joka aiheutuu siitä, että sellaiset vaihtoehdot, joiden arvo on yliarvioitu, tulevat todennäköisemmin valituiksi. Väitöskirjan menetelmiä voidaan käyttää myös linjattaessa hankerahoitusmenettelytapoja, jotka maksimoivat valitun hankeportfolion keskimääräisen arvon tai poikkeuksellisen hyvien hankkeiden määrän. Menettelytavat auttavat lisäksi tunnistamaan, mistä hankkeista on optimaalista hankkia lisäarvioita epävarmuuksien vähentämiseksi siten, että paremmasta arviointitiedosta aiheutuva portfolion arvon nousu kattaa lisäarvioinnin kustannukset.

Julkaisun otsikon käännös	Malliperusteisia päätösprosesseja agendan rakentamiseen ja hankerahoitukseen
Alkuperäiskieli	Englanti
Pätevyys	Tohtorintutkinto
Myöntävä instituutio	Aalto-yliopisto
Valvoja/neuvonantaja	Salo, Ahti, Vastuuprofessori Salo, Ahti, Ohjaaja Liesiö, Juuso, Ohjaaja
Kustantaja	Aalto University
Painoksen ISBN	978-952-60-5677-7
Sähköinen ISBN	978-952-60-5678-4
Tila	Julkaistu - 2014
OKM-julkaisutyyppi	G5 Artikkeliväitöskirja

Tutkimusalat

portfoliopäätösanalyysi
hankevalinta
monitavoitteinen arvoteoria
ryhmäpäätöksenteko
epätäydellinen informaatio
robustisuus
skenaariot
bayesilainen mallinnus
informaation arvo

Pääsy asiakirjaan

http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-60-5678-4Lisenssi: Määrittelemätön

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title = "Model-based decision processes for agenda building and project funding",

abstract = "Essentially all organizations need to recognize relevant future developments in their operational environment as a backdrop for building strategic priorities which are typically implemented by choosing corresponding actions (such as R&D projects). These interlinked processes – most notably horizon scanning, strategic priority-setting and project selection – can all be framed as decision problems in which a subset or portfolio of alternatives is to be selected subject to limited resources and other relevant constraints. They can therefore be approached with methods of portfolio decision analysis (PDA) in order to maximize the value that the selected portfolio can be expected to yield and also to improve the transparency and quality of decision processes. This Dissertation develops PDA methods to support the above decision processes, particularly in contexts where there are significant uncertainties. These methods capture uncertainties through set inclusion of feasible parameters and probability distributions. The methods accommodate the possibly conflicting preferences of multiple decision-makers, and they help identify portfolios that are resilient across a range of scenarios about the future. They also help mitigate so-called post-decision disappointment, which results from the fact that those projects whose values have been overestimated are more likely to be selected. The methods in this Dissertation can also be used to develop optimal project funding policies which maximize the average value of the selected project portfolio or the number of those projects whose values are exceptionally high. They also guide the reduction of uncertainties by indicating about which projects it is optimal to acquire additional value estimates such that the resulting increase in the value of the portfolio exceeds the costs of acquiring such estimates.",

keywords = "portfolio decision analysis, project selection, multi-attribute value theory, group decision making, incomplete information, robustness, scenarios, Bayesian modeling, value of information, portfoliop{\"a}{\"a}t{\"o}sanalyysi, hankevalinta, monitavoitteinen arvoteoria, ryhm{\"a}p{\"a}{\"a}t{\"o}ksenteko, ep{\"a}t{\"a}ydellinen informaatio, robustisuus, skenaariot, bayesilainen mallinnus, informaation arvo, portfolio decision analysis, project selection, multi-attribute value theory, group decision making, incomplete information, robustness, scenarios, Bayesian modeling, value of information",

author = "Eeva Vilkkumaa",

year = "2014",

language = "English",

isbn = "978-952-60-5677-7",

series = "Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS",

publisher = "Aalto University",

number = "64",

address = "Finland",

school = "Aalto University",

}

TY - BOOK

T1 - Model-based decision processes for agenda building and project funding

AU - Vilkkumaa, Eeva

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Essentially all organizations need to recognize relevant future developments in their operational environment as a backdrop for building strategic priorities which are typically implemented by choosing corresponding actions (such as R&D projects). These interlinked processes – most notably horizon scanning, strategic priority-setting and project selection – can all be framed as decision problems in which a subset or portfolio of alternatives is to be selected subject to limited resources and other relevant constraints. They can therefore be approached with methods of portfolio decision analysis (PDA) in order to maximize the value that the selected portfolio can be expected to yield and also to improve the transparency and quality of decision processes. This Dissertation develops PDA methods to support the above decision processes, particularly in contexts where there are significant uncertainties. These methods capture uncertainties through set inclusion of feasible parameters and probability distributions. The methods accommodate the possibly conflicting preferences of multiple decision-makers, and they help identify portfolios that are resilient across a range of scenarios about the future. They also help mitigate so-called post-decision disappointment, which results from the fact that those projects whose values have been overestimated are more likely to be selected. The methods in this Dissertation can also be used to develop optimal project funding policies which maximize the average value of the selected project portfolio or the number of those projects whose values are exceptionally high. They also guide the reduction of uncertainties by indicating about which projects it is optimal to acquire additional value estimates such that the resulting increase in the value of the portfolio exceeds the costs of acquiring such estimates.

AB - Essentially all organizations need to recognize relevant future developments in their operational environment as a backdrop for building strategic priorities which are typically implemented by choosing corresponding actions (such as R&D projects). These interlinked processes – most notably horizon scanning, strategic priority-setting and project selection – can all be framed as decision problems in which a subset or portfolio of alternatives is to be selected subject to limited resources and other relevant constraints. They can therefore be approached with methods of portfolio decision analysis (PDA) in order to maximize the value that the selected portfolio can be expected to yield and also to improve the transparency and quality of decision processes. This Dissertation develops PDA methods to support the above decision processes, particularly in contexts where there are significant uncertainties. These methods capture uncertainties through set inclusion of feasible parameters and probability distributions. The methods accommodate the possibly conflicting preferences of multiple decision-makers, and they help identify portfolios that are resilient across a range of scenarios about the future. They also help mitigate so-called post-decision disappointment, which results from the fact that those projects whose values have been overestimated are more likely to be selected. The methods in this Dissertation can also be used to develop optimal project funding policies which maximize the average value of the selected project portfolio or the number of those projects whose values are exceptionally high. They also guide the reduction of uncertainties by indicating about which projects it is optimal to acquire additional value estimates such that the resulting increase in the value of the portfolio exceeds the costs of acquiring such estimates.

KW - portfolio decision analysis

KW - project selection

KW - multi-attribute value theory

KW - group decision making

KW - incomplete information

KW - robustness

KW - scenarios

KW - Bayesian modeling

KW - value of information

KW - portfoliopäätösanalyysi

KW - hankevalinta

KW - monitavoitteinen arvoteoria

KW - ryhmäpäätöksenteko

KW - epätäydellinen informaatio

KW - robustisuus

KW - skenaariot

KW - bayesilainen mallinnus

KW - informaation arvo

KW - portfolio decision analysis

KW - project selection

KW - multi-attribute value theory

KW - group decision making

KW - incomplete information

KW - robustness

KW - scenarios

KW - Bayesian modeling

KW - value of information

M3 - Doctoral Thesis

SN - 978-952-60-5677-7

T3 - Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS

PB - Aalto University

ER -

Model-based decision processes for agenda building and project funding

Abstrakti

Tutkimusalat

Pääsy asiakirjaan

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