Mobile network operators’ business risks in next-generation public safety services

Field of research: This research falls under the field of mobile broadband 4G/5G networks for public safety communications and focuses specifically on the public safety services business of mobile network operators (MNOs). Purpose: This research contributes a qualitative model of MNOs’ business risks in providing public safety services. The risk assessment covers the business model used in European public safety mobile broadband projects. Methods and data: A qualitative method was chosen for the research. The risk model used was an influence diagram with the causal taxonomy of risk, which is commonly used for qualitative and quantitative causal models based on Bayesian networks. The Delphi method was employed through the use of an expert panel to create the risk model. The expert panel's risk assessment was conducted using a case study that followed the model of European public safety projects. Findings: The risk model shows that business risks are, in many ways, a threat to the financial goals of MNOs' public safety business. These risks could result in additional costs, contractual penalties, and lost service revenue. Additionally, there is potential for negative impacts on MNOs’ regular business, which can lead to a loss of market share and revenue. Value: This research provides new insights into MNOs’ business risks in next-generation public safety services. Procurement authorities are advised to use the results in the business model and contract planning for public safety procurements. MNOs can gain advantages from these results by enhancing their understanding of the potential business risks, their consequences, and how to control and mitigate them in public safety projects.