Influence of Cross-Correlation on the Modelled Uncertainty in Stress–Strain Behavior of Soft Clays

Reliability-based design is increasingly being applied to geotechnical problems because it allows the robust consideration of various sources of uncertainty, such as the inherent variability of soil properties. Some soil properties, however, are mutually dependent, and ignoring this cross-correlation may lead to biased estimates of the probability of unsatisfactory performance. Hence, in this study, the Gaussian copula was used to evaluate how the applied cross-correlation or independence between the compressibility properties affects the uncertainty in the stress–strain response of two marine soft clays. Two settlement calculation methods were considered: the compression index and Janbu tangential stiffness methods. The correlation coefficients were defined from the site-specific oedometer data at two extensively studied clay sites, and from a database. The simulated oedometer curves were compared to the observed variability in the site-specific data. The settlements in the clay sublayers were then computed, and different cases were compared by means of boxplots. It is concluded that the Janbu method leads to a significant overestimation of uncertainty in settlement if the cross-correlation between the compressibility parameters is ignored. On contrary, the compression index method seems less sensitive to the assumed correlation structure, and as such, the parameters can be treated as independent in most cases.