Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation - Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 degrees C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO2 emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO2 annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO2 reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO2 annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.