Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries

Tutkimustuotos: Lehtiartikkelivertaisarvioitu


  • Dieter Gerten
  • Vera Heck
  • Jonas Jägermeyr
  • Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
  • Ingo Fetzer
  • Mika Jalava
  • Matti Kummu
  • Wolfgang Lucht
  • Johan Rockström
  • Sibyll Schaphoff
  • Hans Joachim Schellnhuber


  • Humboldt University of Berlin
  • University of Chicago
  • Stockholm University
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies


Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes.


JulkaisuNature Sustainability
TilaSähköinen julkaisu (e-pub) ennen painettua julkistusta - 20 tammikuuta 2020
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Julkaistu artikkeli, soviteltu

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