Expert Judgment and Uncertainty in Sociotechnical Systems Analysis

The chapter navigates the complicated landscape of incorporating expert insights within the framework of sociotechnical systems. It talks about the pivotal role of expert judgment in unravelling the complexities inherent in these systems and addresses the challenges posed by uncertainties. It also provides an overview of the multifaceted methodologies employed in integrating expert knowledge, encompassing structured expert elicitation techniques, uncertainty quantification models, and the collaborative dynamics of expert panels. Furthermore, it explores the mathematical foundations of Bayesian approaches and fuzzy logic applications, elucidating how these methodologies contribute to a probabilistic assessment and representation of uncertainties. The chapter underscores the importance of addressing challenges such as identifying sources of uncertainty, ethical considerations, and the need for continuous learning in sociotechnical systems analysis. Through a comprehensive exploration of methodologies, real-world applications, and concerns, this chapter aims to contribute to the evolving landscape of expertise in sociotechnical systems, offering insights and implications for both research and practical applications.