Bridging the Expectation vs Reality Gap on Route Choice Behavior of E-bike Users: Evidence from the Greater Helsinki Region in Finland

Electric pedal-assist bikes (e-bikes) are an emerging technology that aims to enhance cycling by incorporating battery-powered motors activated while pedaling. To promote cycling effectively, it is crucial to understand the factors that influence cyclists’ route choice behavior. This study investigates individual route choice behavior among cyclists, taking into account their bike type (i.e., e-bikes vs regular bikes). Data collected through a stated preference (SP) survey in Finland is analyzed using discrete choice models to compare the differences between e-bike and regular bike users. The study also compares the outputs of simple Logit models (SLMs) and random parameter Logit models (RPLMs) for both e-bike and regular bike users to address the impact of error correlation in SP data. Furthermore, by employing a classification approach, the study examines the differences between the expectations and actual behavior of e-bike users, referred to as the expectation-reality gap, in terms of route choice behavior. Our research findings highlight certain factors that consistently promote cycling among both regular bike and e-bike users, specifically, low interaction with traffic, fewer intersections, and the presence of separated bike facilities. Also, our findings imply that the SP data is well-designed to capture the preferences of the individuals, so the observations are not severely correlated, i.e., the IID assumption is held. This suggests that using SLMs can lead to similar outputs with RPLMs, without increasing the complexity of the estimation process. Furthermore, we show that regular bike and e-bike users with similar characteristics do not share similar beliefs regarding the effects of e-bikes on their cycling habits.