A probabilistic model for navigational accident scenarios in the northern Baltic Sea

F. Goerlandt*

*Tämän työn vastaava kirjoittaja

Tutkimustuotos: Artikkeli kirjassa/konferenssijulkaisussaConference contributionScientificvertaisarvioitu

Abstrakti

Navigational accidents in wintertime conditions occur relatively frequently compared to other water conditions, due to the complexity of sea ice conditions and corresponding operations. This paper presents a probabilistic model for navigational accident scenarios in the Northern Baltic Sea, based on an extensive analysis of integrated databases. Accident data, vessel data, sea ice data, atmospheric data and data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) are integrated to create an understanding of the patterns in accident occurrence. Focus is on navigational accidents with a potential to lead to oil spill, which is relevant to improve the knowledge base for maritime risk analysis in context of response preparedness assessment. The probabilistic model is developed as an expert model, where the data analysis is taken as background knowledge for defining the model structure and assigning probabilities. The model is constructed as a Bayesian Network as this is a useful tool for reasoning under uncertainty, ensuring compatibility with other modules relevant for analyzing the extent of oil spill in an accident and the related response.

AlkuperäiskieliEnglanti
OtsikkoSafety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
ToimittajatMarko Cepin, Radim Briš
Sivut3-10
Sivumäärä8
TilaJulkaistu - 1 tammikuuta 2017
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA4 Artikkeli konferenssijulkaisuussa
TapahtumaEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference - Portorož, Slovenia
Kesto: 18 kesäkuuta 201722 kesäkuuta 2017
Konferenssinumero: 27

Conference

ConferenceEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference
LyhennettäESREL
Maa/AlueSlovenia
KaupunkiPortorož
Ajanjakso18/06/201722/06/2017

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