A multicriteria modelling framework for evaluating clean energy transitions : the case of Greece as electricity exporter

The development of clean power generation interacts with various policy objectives pertaining to the energy system, the general economy, people's health, critical resources, and biodiversity, which can be synergistic or conflicting. In this respect, assessing these synergies and trade-offs together within a multicriteria framework has become critical, yet remains inadequately addressed in the literature. This paper contributes to the literature by examining a broad spectrum of trade-offs associated with clean energy development in a Mediterranean country, namely Greece, along with the associated economic impacts of it becoming a clean electricity supplier to its neighbouring countries. In this context, the study further contributes to the literature by developing and linking a technology-rich optimization model representing Greece's energy and resource systems with a Recursive-Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model for the Greek economy. These models are coupled with a multicriteria framework, employing the hybrid AHP-TOPSIS method along with proxy indicators reflecting impacts on costs, critical resources, energy security, people's health, biodiversity, and the economy. The results revealed that policies involving electricity exports stand out as “no regret” options for most decision-maker types, potentially expanding the Greek economy by an average of 0.12 %–0.26 % annually over the 2025–2050 period, depending on electricity price evolution, compared to a baseline scenario in which the country remains a net electricity importer throughout the entire period.