A global perspective on solar-driven hydrogen economy and 2050 carbon neutrality

Solar-powered water electrolysis is emerging as a key technology for producing green hydrogen, offering a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels in the global pursuit of a net-zero economy. However, ensuring whether solar hydrogen can meet global hydrogen demand and determining the optimal locations to deploy solar-based hydrogen production plants to efficiently meet the demand remain a daunting challenge. Herein, we present a comprehensive analysis harnessing high-resolution Geographic Information System (GIS) data on photovoltaic power potential (kWh/kWp) to provide valuable insights into a prospective role of solar hydrogen in achieving 2050 carbon neutrality. In this analysis, we estimate solar hydrogen production potential (tons/year/pixel) and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) ($/kg/pixel) across the globe, at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Results reveal that the global solar hydrogen production potential varies from 215–1829 t/y/p for a 38 MW photovoltaic power plant coupled with a 12.6 MW electrolyzer. Projections indicate a noteworthy decline in LCOH from $5.85–$15.25/kg in 2023 to an expected range of $2.99–$8.77/kg by 2050. Notably, regions such as Australia, the Middle East, Africa, and Chile show significant potential to become primary hubs for solar hydrogen production. In contrast, Europe (excluding Spain) and Japan are deemed less favorable for such endeavors and are bound to rely on imported hydrogen. Subsequently, we estimated the costs of three hydrogen derivatives—ammonia, methanol, and liquid hydrogen—as well as the costs of importing hydrogen between countries in the form of ammonia as a liquid hydrogen carrier. Remarkably, depending on the solar resources available at a specific location, the avoided global warming potential can range from 198.6 to 12638.0 t CO₂-eq/y/p, considering 38 MW photovoltaic power plant coupled with a 12.6 MW electrolyzer. Our study demonstrates the viability of solar hydrogen as a promising avenue towards a sustainable net-zero economy for stakeholders on the globe.