TY - JOUR
T1 - A framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in arctic shipping
AU - Fu, Shanshan
AU - Yu, Yuerong
AU - Chen, Jihong
AU - Xi, Yongtao
AU - Zhang, Mingyang
N1 - Funding Information:
This study is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China under grant No. 2021YFC2801000, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under grant No. 51879156, and Shanghai Rising-Star Program 22QC1400600.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022
PY - 2022/10
Y1 - 2022/10
N2 - The melting of Arctic Sea ice has significantly facilitated Arctic shipping. However, such increased shipping has brought about higher maritime accidents in Arctic waters, especially for grounding and fire/explosion accidents. The paper presents a framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in Arctic shipping by developing an accident map (AcciMap) - Bayesian network (BN) model. First, the potential risk factors for grounding accidents in the Arctic shipping were identified according to 322 maritime accident investigation reports (MAIRs) - 299 global MAIRs of grounding accidents (including 5 in Arctic waters) and 23 MAIRs (except grounding accidents) in Arctic waters and related literature. Consequently, an AcciMap model is developed for describing the evolution of grounding accident scenarios and reflecting the interdependency of the identified risk factors. Then, a probabilistic model is proposed to evaluate the probability and severity of the grounding accident for presenting a convincing justification for risk control options (RCOs). The framework is applied for the quantitative analysis of a cruise ship grounding accident in Arctic waters. Results demonstrate (1) improved understanding of cruise ship grounding risk factors related to government supervision, shipping company management, technical and operational management, unsafe incidents and behaviors, and environmental conditions; (2) quantitative analysis of the evolution of grounding accident and better identification of the critical risk factors; (3) determination of RCOs for risk management in Arctic shipping.
AB - The melting of Arctic Sea ice has significantly facilitated Arctic shipping. However, such increased shipping has brought about higher maritime accidents in Arctic waters, especially for grounding and fire/explosion accidents. The paper presents a framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in Arctic shipping by developing an accident map (AcciMap) - Bayesian network (BN) model. First, the potential risk factors for grounding accidents in the Arctic shipping were identified according to 322 maritime accident investigation reports (MAIRs) - 299 global MAIRs of grounding accidents (including 5 in Arctic waters) and 23 MAIRs (except grounding accidents) in Arctic waters and related literature. Consequently, an AcciMap model is developed for describing the evolution of grounding accident scenarios and reflecting the interdependency of the identified risk factors. Then, a probabilistic model is proposed to evaluate the probability and severity of the grounding accident for presenting a convincing justification for risk control options (RCOs). The framework is applied for the quantitative analysis of a cruise ship grounding accident in Arctic waters. Results demonstrate (1) improved understanding of cruise ship grounding risk factors related to government supervision, shipping company management, technical and operational management, unsafe incidents and behaviors, and environmental conditions; (2) quantitative analysis of the evolution of grounding accident and better identification of the critical risk factors; (3) determination of RCOs for risk management in Arctic shipping.
KW - AcciMap
KW - Arctic shipping
KW - Bayesian network
KW - Grounding
KW - Maritime accident investigation reports
KW - Quantitative risk assessment
KW - Risk control options
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85133553637&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108706
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108706
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85133553637
SN - 0951-8320
VL - 226
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
M1 - 108706
ER -