Wind speed modeling using a vector autoregressive process with a time-dependent intercept term

Matti Koivisto*, Janne Seppänen, Ilkka Mellin, Jussi Ekström, Robert Millar, Ivan Mammarella, Mika Komppula, Matti Lehtonen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The effect of wind power on the electric power system is becoming increasingly important as more wind power is installed. This paper presents a Vector-Autoregressive-To-Anything (VARTA) process with a time-dependent intercept to model wind speeds in multiple locations. The model considers both temporal and spatial dependency structures in detail. It can be used in Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of very high or low wind speeds occurring in multiple locations at the same time and during consecutive hours. The long term simulation and short term forecasting results are assessed using measurements from 21 locations in Finland. A discussion on the applicability of the presented wind speed simulation method for the risk assessment of power systems is given.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)91-99
Number of pages9
JournalInternational Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
Volume77
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2016
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Generalized Pareto distribution
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Rank correlation
  • Vector autoregressive model
  • Wind speed

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