Verifying efficacy: Navy force structure

Victor Tang*, Kevin Otto, Warren Seering

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterScientificpeer-review


This chapter is a challenging case study that deals with national security. The strategic decision is about the size and structure of the US Navy for the year 2037. This case itself is a grand gedanken experiment done with experts. This case is demanding because it is very multidimensional. We had to consider geopolitical issues, economics, recent and not so recent history, international law, national cultures, NATO, and so on. The solution space under the uncertainty conditions specified consisted of 1,374,389,534,720 candidate decision alternatives. We constructed robust decisions using our decision-synthesis methodology without constraining the ability to explore any region of the solution space under any uncertainty. No data or information—in physical, electronic or verbal—in this chapter originate from any classified sources. The analyses and inferences do not represent positions of the US Navy.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationExecutive Decision Synthesis
Number of pages99
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-63026-7
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018
MoE publication typeA3 Part of a book or another research book

Publication series

NameContributions to Management Science
ISSN (Print)1431-1941
ISSN (Electronic)2197-716X


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