Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Celine Guivarch*, Thomas Le Gallic, Nico Bauer, Panagiotis Fragkos, Daniel Huppmann, Marc Jaxa-Rozen, Ilkka Keppo, Elmar Kriegler, Tamas Krisztin, Giacomo Marangoni, Steve Pye, Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Massimo Tavoni, Evelina Trutnevyte, Detlef van Vuuren, Fabian Wagner

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)
11 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Mitigation scenario ensembles are becoming an important tool to bring new and robust insights into the transition to net zero. This Perspective unpacks their potential and identifies key steps for better use of scenario ensembles and to foster good practices.

As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)428-435
Number of pages8
JournalNATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Volume12
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 9 May 2022
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • LOW-CARBON WORLD
  • INVESTMENT NEEDS
  • PARIS AGREEMENT
  • CO2 EMISSIONS
  • ENERGY
  • UNCERTAINTY
  • MODEL
  • FUTURES
  • POLICY
  • DISCOVERY

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