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Abstract
Crossimpact analysis is widely employed to inform management and policy decisions based on the formulation of scenarios, defined as combinations of outcomes of relevant uncertainty factors. In this paper, we argue that the use of nonprobabilistic variants of crossimpact analysis is problematic in the context of risk assessment where the usual aim is to produce conservative risk estimates which may exceed but are not smaller than the actual risk level. Then, building on the characterization of probabilistic dependencies, we develop an approach to probabilistic crossimpact analysis which (i) admits several kinds of probabilistic statements about the outcomes of relevant uncertainty factors and their dependencies; (ii) maps such statements into constraints on the joint probability distribution over all possible scenarios; (iii) provides support for preserving the consistency of elicited statements; and (iv) uses mathematical optimization to compute lower and upper bounds on the overall risk level. This approach—which is illustrated with an example from the context of nuclear waste repositories—is useful in that it retains the informativeness of crossimpact statements while ensuring that these statements are interpreted within the coherent framework of probability theory.
Original language  English 

Number of pages  14 
Journal  Futures and Foresight Science 
Volume  4 
Issue number  2 
Early online date  20 Sept 2021 
DOIs  
Publication status  Published  Jun 2022 
MoE publication type  A1 Journal articlerefereed 
Keywords
 crossimpact analysis
 probabilistic risk assessment
 scenario analysis
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 1 Finished

SYSMET: Systemaattiset skenaariomenetelmät kokonaisturvallisuuden arvioinnissa
Salo, A., Tosoni, E. & Roponen, J.
01/02/2019 → 31/01/2020
Project: Other external funding: Other government funding