Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety

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Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety. / Wróbel, Krzysztof; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti.

In: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 165, 01.09.2017, p. 155-169.

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@article{7bf5b123e981404b897c75c759d9fe44,
title = "Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety",
abstract = "The prototypes of unmanned merchant vessels are expected to come into service within the coming years. The main line of argument supporting their introduction pertains to the increase in navigational safety, which is expected to be achieved by reducing the frequency of human-related accidents on board ships, by removing the crews. On the other hand, the response of unmanned ship to potential accidents is still uncertain. With enthusiasm on one side and apprehension on the other, the literature lacks an objective study on the effect of unmanned ships on safety of maritime transportation. This paper constitutes an attempt to bridge the aforementioned gap by applying a framework based on what-if analysis to a hundred maritime accident reports. The aim of the analysis is to assess whether the accident would have happened if the ship had been unmanned, and once the accident had happened - would its consequences have been different. The results obtained reveal that the occurrence of navigational accidents (e.g. collision, grounding) can be expected to decrease with the development of unmanned ship. However the extent of consequences resulting particularly from non-navigational accidents (e.g. fire, ship loss due to structural failure) can be expected to be much larger for the unmanned ships when compared to the conventional ones.",
keywords = "Autonomous vehicles, Hazard analysis, Maritime accidents, Maritime safety, Resilience engineering, Unmanned ships",
author = "Krzysztof Wr{\'o}bel and Jakub Montewka and Pentti Kujala",
year = "2017",
month = "9",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.029",
language = "English",
volume = "165",
pages = "155--169",
journal = "Reliability Engineering and System Safety",
issn = "0951-8320",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",

}

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety

AU - Wróbel, Krzysztof

AU - Montewka, Jakub

AU - Kujala, Pentti

PY - 2017/9/1

Y1 - 2017/9/1

N2 - The prototypes of unmanned merchant vessels are expected to come into service within the coming years. The main line of argument supporting their introduction pertains to the increase in navigational safety, which is expected to be achieved by reducing the frequency of human-related accidents on board ships, by removing the crews. On the other hand, the response of unmanned ship to potential accidents is still uncertain. With enthusiasm on one side and apprehension on the other, the literature lacks an objective study on the effect of unmanned ships on safety of maritime transportation. This paper constitutes an attempt to bridge the aforementioned gap by applying a framework based on what-if analysis to a hundred maritime accident reports. The aim of the analysis is to assess whether the accident would have happened if the ship had been unmanned, and once the accident had happened - would its consequences have been different. The results obtained reveal that the occurrence of navigational accidents (e.g. collision, grounding) can be expected to decrease with the development of unmanned ship. However the extent of consequences resulting particularly from non-navigational accidents (e.g. fire, ship loss due to structural failure) can be expected to be much larger for the unmanned ships when compared to the conventional ones.

AB - The prototypes of unmanned merchant vessels are expected to come into service within the coming years. The main line of argument supporting their introduction pertains to the increase in navigational safety, which is expected to be achieved by reducing the frequency of human-related accidents on board ships, by removing the crews. On the other hand, the response of unmanned ship to potential accidents is still uncertain. With enthusiasm on one side and apprehension on the other, the literature lacks an objective study on the effect of unmanned ships on safety of maritime transportation. This paper constitutes an attempt to bridge the aforementioned gap by applying a framework based on what-if analysis to a hundred maritime accident reports. The aim of the analysis is to assess whether the accident would have happened if the ship had been unmanned, and once the accident had happened - would its consequences have been different. The results obtained reveal that the occurrence of navigational accidents (e.g. collision, grounding) can be expected to decrease with the development of unmanned ship. However the extent of consequences resulting particularly from non-navigational accidents (e.g. fire, ship loss due to structural failure) can be expected to be much larger for the unmanned ships when compared to the conventional ones.

KW - Autonomous vehicles

KW - Hazard analysis

KW - Maritime accidents

KW - Maritime safety

KW - Resilience engineering

KW - Unmanned ships

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85017131333&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.029

DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.029

M3 - Article

VL - 165

SP - 155

EP - 169

JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety

JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety

SN - 0951-8320

ER -

ID: 11780010