TY - JOUR
T1 - Towards system-theoretic risk management for maritime transportation systems : A case study of the Yangtze River estuary
AU - Fu, Shanshan
AU - Gu, Siyuan
AU - Zhang, Yue
AU - Zhang, Mingyang
AU - Weng, Jinxian
N1 - Funding Information:
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under grants No. 52072237 and No. 52271363 , the Science and Technology Innovation Plan of Shanghai Science and Technology under grant No. 21692106400 , and Shanghai Rising-Star Program 22QC1400600 , and the International Association of Maritime Universities (IAMU) research project under grant 20220304 .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023/10/15
Y1 - 2023/10/15
N2 - This paper presents a novel framework for system-theoretic risk management of maritime transportation systems (MTS) based on the principles of formal safety assessment. The proposed framework comprises four essential steps: (1) risk identification: identifying accident scenarios and associated risk-influencing factors in the MTS through text mining of maritime accident investigation reports; (2) risk analysis: determining the probabilities and consequences of accident scenarios in the MTS using Bayesian network modeling; (3) risk evaluation: assessing the risks of various accident scenarios and the comprehensive risk of the MTS, and comparing the results with risk acceptance criteria to make informed decisions; and (4) risk treatment: proposing effective risk control options (RCOs) for accident scenarios and the comprehensive risk of the MTS by incorporating expert judgment, fuzzy sets, and Bayesian network modeling. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, the risk management of the Yangtze River Estuary is presented as a case study. By adopting a comprehensive approach to risk management, stakeholders gain a more holistic view of risk and achieve more effective decision-making processes for RCOs. The framework may help improve the safety and security of maritime operations, enhance the efficiency and competitiveness of the industry.
AB - This paper presents a novel framework for system-theoretic risk management of maritime transportation systems (MTS) based on the principles of formal safety assessment. The proposed framework comprises four essential steps: (1) risk identification: identifying accident scenarios and associated risk-influencing factors in the MTS through text mining of maritime accident investigation reports; (2) risk analysis: determining the probabilities and consequences of accident scenarios in the MTS using Bayesian network modeling; (3) risk evaluation: assessing the risks of various accident scenarios and the comprehensive risk of the MTS, and comparing the results with risk acceptance criteria to make informed decisions; and (4) risk treatment: proposing effective risk control options (RCOs) for accident scenarios and the comprehensive risk of the MTS by incorporating expert judgment, fuzzy sets, and Bayesian network modeling. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, the risk management of the Yangtze River Estuary is presented as a case study. By adopting a comprehensive approach to risk management, stakeholders gain a more holistic view of risk and achieve more effective decision-making processes for RCOs. The framework may help improve the safety and security of maritime operations, enhance the efficiency and competitiveness of the industry.
KW - Maritime accident investigation reports
KW - Maritime transportation systems
KW - Quantitative risk assessment
KW - Risk control options
KW - Risk influencing factors
KW - Yangtze river estuary
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85171569123&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.115637
DO - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.115637
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85171569123
SN - 0029-8018
VL - 286
JO - Ocean Engineering
JF - Ocean Engineering
M1 - 115637
ER -