Towards decision-making support for complex socio-technical system safety assessment : A hybrid model combining FRAM and dynamic Bayesian networks

Effectively managing system safety and resilience in critical infrastructures requires addressing emergent risks and critical resonances. This study introduces a quantitative model that merges Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to assess technological, organizational, and human performance variability in complex social-technical systems. FRAM identifies system taxonomy and functional variability, while MCS pinpoints critical coupling, supplying prior probabilities for functional resonance. This information feeds into the DBN, facilitating the modeling of causal relationships and probabilistic inferences regarding risk uncertainties and system resonances. The model underwent rigorous testing and validation on a preheater cyclone system within the cement industry. This process involved the utilization of historical field data gathered from six prominent cement industries and input from thirty subject matter experts. The integrated approach deeply analyzes emerging risk indicators, unveiling interactions within organizational, human, and technical subsets, alongside performance variability. Furthermore, the model incorporates system learning parameters, aiding decision-making under uncertainty. These findings advance system safety and resilience management, offering insights for risk assessment and accident prevention across diverse scenarios in complex socio-technical systems.