The Impact of District Heat Electrification on Electricity Market Scarcity Situations in Finland

Tero Koivunen; Sanna Syri; Iiro Mikola

doi:10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050307

The Impact of District Heat Electrification on Electricity Market Scarcity Situations in Finland

Tero Koivunen
, Sanna Syri^*
, Iiro Mikola

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review

23 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Finland is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2035. Due to the large amount of wind and nuclear power, Finland's electricity production is 95 % carbon neutral. It is essential to electrify also transport, industry and heating. District heating is a vital part of Finland's energy system, designed to provide reliable heating also in extreme winter temperatures. However, in cities it still relies largely on fossil fuels. This contribution analyses the outlook of district heat electrification and whether the growing electricity demand and retirement of combined heat and power plants will threaten electricity supply security. Analysis is done with PLEXOS electricity market model, considering the expected development of demand, generation and transmission capacities in the whole Nordic and Baltic region, and modelling 35 different weather years from the ENTSO-E ERAA 2022 data. The study shows that retirement of combined heat and power plants aggravates challenging winter situations and deficit may occur.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025
Publisher	IEEE
Number of pages	5
ISBN (Electronic)	979-8-3315-1278-1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050307
Publication status	Published - 2025
MoE publication type	A4 Conference publication
Event	International Conference on the European Energy Market - Lisbon, Portugal Duration: 27 May 2025 → 29 May 2025 Conference number: 21

Publication series

Name	International Conference on the European Energy Market
ISSN (Print)	2165-4077
ISSN (Electronic)	2165-4093

Conference

Conference	International Conference on the European Energy Market
Abbreviated title	EEM
Country/Territory	Portugal
City	Lisbon
Period	27/05/2025 → 29/05/2025

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

Combined heat and power
District heating
Load shedding

Access to Document

10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050307

ENG_Koivunen_et_al_The_impact_of_district_heat_electrification_EEM_25Accepted author manuscript, 438 KB

Cite this

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title = "The Impact of District Heat Electrification on Electricity Market Scarcity Situations in Finland",

abstract = "Finland is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2035. Due to the large amount of wind and nuclear power, Finland's electricity production is 95 \% carbon neutral. It is essential to electrify also transport, industry and heating. District heating is a vital part of Finland's energy system, designed to provide reliable heating also in extreme winter temperatures. However, in cities it still relies largely on fossil fuels. This contribution analyses the outlook of district heat electrification and whether the growing electricity demand and retirement of combined heat and power plants will threaten electricity supply security. Analysis is done with PLEXOS electricity market model, considering the expected development of demand, generation and transmission capacities in the whole Nordic and Baltic region, and modelling 35 different weather years from the ENTSO-E ERAA 2022 data. The study shows that retirement of combined heat and power plants aggravates challenging winter situations and deficit may occur.",

keywords = "Combined heat and power, District heating, Load shedding",

author = "Tero Koivunen and Sanna Syri and Iiro Mikola",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025 IEEE.; International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM ; Conference date: 27-05-2025 Through 29-05-2025",

year = "2025",

doi = "10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050307",

language = "English",

series = "International Conference on the European Energy Market",

publisher = "IEEE",

booktitle = "2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025",

address = "United States",

}

Koivunen, T, Syri, S & Mikola, I 2025, The Impact of District Heat Electrification on Electricity Market Scarcity Situations in Finland. in 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025. International Conference on the European Energy Market, IEEE, International Conference on the European Energy Market, Lisbon, Portugal, 27/05/2025. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050307

The Impact of District Heat Electrification on Electricity Market Scarcity Situations in Finland. / Koivunen, Tero; Syri, Sanna; Mikola, Iiro.
2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025. IEEE, 2025. (International Conference on the European Energy Market).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - The Impact of District Heat Electrification on Electricity Market Scarcity Situations in Finland

AU - Koivunen, Tero

AU - Syri, Sanna

AU - Mikola, Iiro

N1 - Conference code: 21

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - Finland is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2035. Due to the large amount of wind and nuclear power, Finland's electricity production is 95 % carbon neutral. It is essential to electrify also transport, industry and heating. District heating is a vital part of Finland's energy system, designed to provide reliable heating also in extreme winter temperatures. However, in cities it still relies largely on fossil fuels. This contribution analyses the outlook of district heat electrification and whether the growing electricity demand and retirement of combined heat and power plants will threaten electricity supply security. Analysis is done with PLEXOS electricity market model, considering the expected development of demand, generation and transmission capacities in the whole Nordic and Baltic region, and modelling 35 different weather years from the ENTSO-E ERAA 2022 data. The study shows that retirement of combined heat and power plants aggravates challenging winter situations and deficit may occur.

AB - Finland is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2035. Due to the large amount of wind and nuclear power, Finland's electricity production is 95 % carbon neutral. It is essential to electrify also transport, industry and heating. District heating is a vital part of Finland's energy system, designed to provide reliable heating also in extreme winter temperatures. However, in cities it still relies largely on fossil fuels. This contribution analyses the outlook of district heat electrification and whether the growing electricity demand and retirement of combined heat and power plants will threaten electricity supply security. Analysis is done with PLEXOS electricity market model, considering the expected development of demand, generation and transmission capacities in the whole Nordic and Baltic region, and modelling 35 different weather years from the ENTSO-E ERAA 2022 data. The study shows that retirement of combined heat and power plants aggravates challenging winter situations and deficit may occur.

KW - Combined heat and power

KW - District heating

KW - Load shedding

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105011065284

U2 - 10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050307

DO - 10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050307

M3 - Conference article in proceedings

AN - SCOPUS:105011065284

T3 - International Conference on the European Energy Market

BT - 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025

PB - IEEE

T2 - International Conference on the European Energy Market

Y2 - 27 May 2025 through 29 May 2025

ER -

The Impact of District Heat Electrification on Electricity Market Scarcity Situations in Finland

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Data on the paper "The impact of district heat electrification on electricity market scarcity situations in Finland" of the IEEE 21st International Conference on European Energy Markets, Lisbon 27th – 29th May 2025.

STN RealSolar/Syri: REsilient and Accessible power system with Large shares of Solar energy

Cite this

The Impact of District Heat Electrification on Electricity Market Scarcity Situations in Finland

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Datasets

Data on the paper "The impact of district heat electrification on electricity market scarcity situations in Finland" of the IEEE 21st International Conference on European Energy Markets, Lisbon 27th – 29th May 2025.

Projects

STN RealSolar/Syri: REsilient and Accessible power system with Large shares of Solar energy

Cite this