The future of unpaid work: Estimating the effects of automation on time spent on housework and care work in Japan and the UK

Ekaterina Hertog; Setsuya Fukuda; Rikiya Matsukura; Nobuko Nagase; Vili Lehdonvirta

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122443

The future of unpaid work: Estimating the effects of automation on time spent on housework and care work in Japan and the UK

Ekaterina Hertog^*
, Setsuya Fukuda
, Rikiya Matsukura
, Nobuko Nagase
, Vili Lehdonvirta

^*Corresponding author for this work

Not published at Aalto University

University of Oxford
Nihon University
Ochanomizu University
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Unpaid domestic work is vital for human reproduction and enables all other forms of work. In this article, we present first estimates of the impacts of “smart” and “AI” technologies on unpaid work. We ask what the likelihood is of various types of unpaid work being automated, and how this would change the time spent on domestic work and on the gendered division of labour. We adapt three automation likelihood estimates for paid work occupations to estimate the automation likelihood of 19 domestic work tasks. Applying these estimates to Japanese and UK national time use data, we find that 50–60 % of the total time spent on unpaid work could be saved through automation. The savings are unevenly distributed: a Japanese woman aged 20–59 could save up to 3.5 h, a UK woman of the same age could save up to 3 h on an average weekday. A man in the UK could save 1.5 h and a Japanese man only 1 h on an average weekday. Domestic automation could free up to 9.3 % of women in Japan and 5.8 % of women in the UK to take up full- or part-time employment, pointing to substantial potential economic and social gains.

Original language	English
Article number	122443
Journal	Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Volume	191
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122443
Publication status	Published - 2023
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

This research was supported by a UK-Japan collaborative grant jointly awarded by UK Research and Innovation (grant number ES/T007265/1; PI Ekaterina Hertog) and by the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) of the Japan Science and Technology Agency (grant number JPMJRX19H4; PI Nobuko Nagase). This project also benefited from funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the European Research Council Consolidator Grant agreement No 771736. This research was supported by a UK-Japan collaborative grant jointly awarded by UK Research and Innovation (grant number ES/T007265/1 ; PI Ekaterina Hertog) and by the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) of the Japan Science and Technology Agency (grant number JPMJRX19H4 ; PI Nobuko Nagase). This project also benefited from funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 681546 (FAMSIZEMATTERS) and grant agreement No 771736 (GENTIME). The funders did not play any role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 5 Gender Equality
SDG 10 Reduced Inequalities

Keywords

Automation
Gender equality
Labour supply
Time use
Unpaid work

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10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122443Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "The future of unpaid work: Estimating the effects of automation on time spent on housework and care work in Japan and the UK",

abstract = "Unpaid domestic work is vital for human reproduction and enables all other forms of work. In this article, we present first estimates of the impacts of {\textquotedblleft}smart{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}AI{\textquotedblright} technologies on unpaid work. We ask what the likelihood is of various types of unpaid work being automated, and how this would change the time spent on domestic work and on the gendered division of labour. We adapt three automation likelihood estimates for paid work occupations to estimate the automation likelihood of 19 domestic work tasks. Applying these estimates to Japanese and UK national time use data, we find that 50{\textendash}60 \% of the total time spent on unpaid work could be saved through automation. The savings are unevenly distributed: a Japanese woman aged 20{\textendash}59 could save up to 3.5 h, a UK woman of the same age could save up to 3 h on an average weekday. A man in the UK could save 1.5 h and a Japanese man only 1 h on an average weekday. Domestic automation could free up to 9.3 \% of women in Japan and 5.8 \% of women in the UK to take up full- or part-time employment, pointing to substantial potential economic and social gains.",

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author = "Ekaterina Hertog and Setsuya Fukuda and Rikiya Matsukura and Nobuko Nagase and Vili Lehdonvirta",

note = "Funding Information: This research was supported by a UK-Japan collaborative grant jointly awarded by UK Research and Innovation (grant number ES/T007265/1; PI Ekaterina Hertog) and by the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) of the Japan Science and Technology Agency (grant number JPMJRX19H4; PI Nobuko Nagase). This project also benefited from funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the European Research Council Consolidator Grant agreement No 771736. Funding Information: This research was supported by a UK-Japan collaborative grant jointly awarded by UK Research and Innovation (grant number ES/T007265/1 ; PI Ekaterina Hertog) and by the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) of the Japan Science and Technology Agency (grant number JPMJRX19H4 ; PI Nobuko Nagase). This project also benefited from funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 681546 (FAMSIZEMATTERS) and grant agreement No 771736 (GENTIME). The funders did not play any role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors",

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AU - Nagase, Nobuko

AU - Lehdonvirta, Vili

N1 - Funding Information: This research was supported by a UK-Japan collaborative grant jointly awarded by UK Research and Innovation (grant number ES/T007265/1; PI Ekaterina Hertog) and by the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) of the Japan Science and Technology Agency (grant number JPMJRX19H4; PI Nobuko Nagase). This project also benefited from funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the European Research Council Consolidator Grant agreement No 771736. Funding Information: This research was supported by a UK-Japan collaborative grant jointly awarded by UK Research and Innovation (grant number ES/T007265/1 ; PI Ekaterina Hertog) and by the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) of the Japan Science and Technology Agency (grant number JPMJRX19H4 ; PI Nobuko Nagase). This project also benefited from funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 681546 (FAMSIZEMATTERS) and grant agreement No 771736 (GENTIME). The funders did not play any role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors

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N2 - Unpaid domestic work is vital for human reproduction and enables all other forms of work. In this article, we present first estimates of the impacts of “smart” and “AI” technologies on unpaid work. We ask what the likelihood is of various types of unpaid work being automated, and how this would change the time spent on domestic work and on the gendered division of labour. We adapt three automation likelihood estimates for paid work occupations to estimate the automation likelihood of 19 domestic work tasks. Applying these estimates to Japanese and UK national time use data, we find that 50–60 % of the total time spent on unpaid work could be saved through automation. The savings are unevenly distributed: a Japanese woman aged 20–59 could save up to 3.5 h, a UK woman of the same age could save up to 3 h on an average weekday. A man in the UK could save 1.5 h and a Japanese man only 1 h on an average weekday. Domestic automation could free up to 9.3 % of women in Japan and 5.8 % of women in the UK to take up full- or part-time employment, pointing to substantial potential economic and social gains.

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KW - Labour supply

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The future of unpaid work: Estimating the effects of automation on time spent on housework and care work in Japan and the UK

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

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