Temporal Analysis of Adverse Weather Conditions Affecting Wheat Production in Finland

Vladimir Kuzmanovski*, Mika Sulkava, Taru Palosuo, Jaakko Hollmén

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Growing conditions of agricultural crops are increasingly affected by global climate change. Not only the overall agro-climatic conditions are changing, but also climatic variability and the occurrence of extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. This will affect crop yields and impact food supply both locally and globally. Located in the north, with short growing seasons and long days, Finland is not an exception. Drought- and temperature-related adverse events have been identified as most harmful abiotic factors on the production. Farmers try to mitigate with a range of management options. However, they need to adapt them over time as the climate is changing. This study aims to identify the most adverse weather events that affect the spring wheat production in Finland and to ascertain if there have been changes on the most harmful abiotic weather-related factors during the last decades. Adverse weather conditions studied include frequency and length of periods with exceptional snow, drought, intensive rainfall and extreme heat. This was studied by modeling the wheat production using the adverse weather events as predictors with different lengths of training period (consecutive number of years) using LASSO regression. The results reveal clear shift from early season drought and periodical intensive rainfall to the adverse effects of frequent and long periods of extremely high temperatures during later development stages.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDiscovery Science 22nd International Conference, DS 2019, Proceedings
EditorsPetra Kralj Novak, Sašo Džeroski, Tomislav Šmuc
Pages176-185
Number of pages10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
EventInternational Conference on Discovery Science - Split, Croatia
Duration: 28 Oct 201930 Oct 2019
Conference number: 22

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume11828 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Discovery Science
Abbreviated titleDIS
CountryCroatia
CitySplit
Period28/10/201930/10/2019

Keywords

  • Adverse weather event
  • Data analysis
  • Time series
  • Wheat production

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  • Cite this

    Kuzmanovski, V., Sulkava, M., Palosuo, T., & Hollmén, J. (2019). Temporal Analysis of Adverse Weather Conditions Affecting Wheat Production in Finland. In P. Kralj Novak, S. Džeroski, & T. Šmuc (Eds.), Discovery Science 22nd International Conference, DS 2019, Proceedings (pp. 176-185). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 11828 LNAI). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33778-0_15