Simulation-based assessment of the operational performance of the finnish–swedish winter navigation system

Martin Bergström*, Pentti Kujala

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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Abstract

This article presents a discrete event simulation-based approach for assessing the operating performance of the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System (FSWNS) under different operating scenarios. Different operating scenarios are specified in terms of ice conditions, the volume of maritime traffic, number of icebreakers (IBs), and regulations such as the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). Considered performance indicators include transport capacity, number of instances of icebreaker (IB) assistance, and IB waiting times. The approach is validated against real-world data on maritime traffic in the Bothnian Bay. In terms of the number of ship arrivals per port, indicating the transport capacity of the FSWNS, the simulation agrees well with the data. In terms of the number of instances of IB assistance and IB waiting times per port, the standard deviations between the mean of 35 independent simulation runs and the data are 13% and 18%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the simulated number of instances of IB assistance and IB waiting times is particularly sensitive to assumptions concerning the presence of brash ice channels. Case studies indicate that, unless the number of IBs is increased, the EEDI regulations may result in a significant increase in both the number of instances of IB assistance and the cumulated IB waiting times.

Original languageEnglish
Article number6747
Pages (from-to)1-27
Number of pages27
JournalApplied Sciences (Switzerland)
Volume10
Issue number19
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 27 Sep 2020
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • Arctic shipping
  • Discrete-event simulation
  • Energy efficiency design index (EEDI)
  • Ice class ships
  • Icebreakers
  • Maritime transport systems
  • Winter navigation

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