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Abstract
Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 2450 |
Number of pages | 26 |
Journal | Sustainability |
Volume | 11 |
Issue number | 8 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Apr 2019 |
MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
Keywords
- Climate change
- Drought
- Finland
- Groundwater
- Hydrological modeling
- Preparedness
- Water security
- Water-energy-food security nexus
- ENERGY
- water-energy-food security nexus
- water security
- groundwater
- TRENDS
- EUROPE
- FLOODS
- PRECIPITATION
- hydrological modeling
- preparedness
- drought
- SIMULATIONS
- PROJECTIONS
- climate change
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- 1 Finished
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From Failand to Winland
Varis, O. (Principal investigator), Niva, V. (Project Member), Sojamo, S. (Project Member), Porkka, M. (Project Member), Jalava, M. (Project Member), Lehikoinen, E. (Project Member) & Keskinen, M. (Project Member)
01/04/2016 → 31/08/2019
Project: Academy of Finland: Strategic research funding