Robust discrimination between uncertain management alternatives by iterative reflection on crossover point scenarios: Principles, design and implementations

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Researchers

Research units

  • Australian National University

Abstract

When comparing environmental management alternatives, there is a need to assess the effect of uncertainty in the underlying model(s) and future conditions on robustness of recommendations. At times, it may be difficult or undesirable to specify the uncertainty in inputs and parameters a priori. An alternative approach instead generates crossover points, describing scenarios where the preferred alternative will change (i.e. alternatives are of equal value), and prompts the analyst to assess their plausibility a posteriori. This paper extends previous work by introducing principles, design and implementation of a new method to analyse crossover points. It reduces the complexity of dealing with many variables by identifying single crossover points of greatest concern, and progressively building understanding through three stages of analysis. We present three implementations using R, Excel and a web interface. They use two examples involving cost-benefit analysis of managed aquifer recharge and the water footprint impact of changing diets.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)326-343
Number of pages18
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume83
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2016
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Research areas

  • Crossover points, Fuzzy set theory, Robustness, Scenario analysis, Uncertainty, Vulnerability analysis

ID: 6503976