TY - JOUR
T1 - Robust discrimination between uncertain management alternatives by iterative reflection on crossover point scenarios
T2 - Principles, design and implementations
AU - Guillaume, Joseph H A
AU - Arshad, Muhammad
AU - Jakeman, Anthony J.
AU - Jalava, Mika
AU - Kummu, Matti
PY - 2016/9/1
Y1 - 2016/9/1
N2 - When comparing environmental management alternatives, there is a need to assess the effect of uncertainty in the underlying model(s) and future conditions on robustness of recommendations. At times, it may be difficult or undesirable to specify the uncertainty in inputs and parameters a priori. An alternative approach instead generates crossover points, describing scenarios where the preferred alternative will change (i.e. alternatives are of equal value), and prompts the analyst to assess their plausibility a posteriori. This paper extends previous work by introducing principles, design and implementation of a new method to analyse crossover points. It reduces the complexity of dealing with many variables by identifying single crossover points of greatest concern, and progressively building understanding through three stages of analysis. We present three implementations using R, Excel and a web interface. They use two examples involving cost-benefit analysis of managed aquifer recharge and the water footprint impact of changing diets.
AB - When comparing environmental management alternatives, there is a need to assess the effect of uncertainty in the underlying model(s) and future conditions on robustness of recommendations. At times, it may be difficult or undesirable to specify the uncertainty in inputs and parameters a priori. An alternative approach instead generates crossover points, describing scenarios where the preferred alternative will change (i.e. alternatives are of equal value), and prompts the analyst to assess their plausibility a posteriori. This paper extends previous work by introducing principles, design and implementation of a new method to analyse crossover points. It reduces the complexity of dealing with many variables by identifying single crossover points of greatest concern, and progressively building understanding through three stages of analysis. We present three implementations using R, Excel and a web interface. They use two examples involving cost-benefit analysis of managed aquifer recharge and the water footprint impact of changing diets.
KW - Crossover points
KW - Fuzzy set theory
KW - Robustness
KW - Scenario analysis
KW - Uncertainty
KW - Vulnerability analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84975882674&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.005
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.005
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84975882674
SN - 1364-8152
VL - 83
SP - 326
EP - 343
JO - Environmental Modelling and Software
JF - Environmental Modelling and Software
ER -