Risk management model of winter navigation operations

Osiris A. Valdez Banda*, Floris Goerlandt, Vladimir Kuzmin, Pentti Kujala, Jakub Montewka

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

64 Citations (Scopus)
158 Downloads (Pure)


The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)242–262
JournalMarine Pollution Bulletin
Issue number1-2
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2016
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


  • Accidental oil spill
  • Bayesian networks
  • Formal Safety Assessment
  • Maritime risk management
  • Maritime safety
  • Winter navigation operations

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