Review of Climate Strategies in Northern Europe : Exposure to Potential Risks and Limitations

Johannes Hyvönen*, Tero Koivunen, Sanna Syri

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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Several northern European countries have announced ambitious plans to become carbon neutral already before the year 2050. Recent research has, however, highlighted how potential bottlenecks in raw material and resource availability could significantly delay or hinder wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion and continued biomass usage in parts of Europe. To address this issue, this paper assesses how exposed the national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of Finland, Estonia, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark are to resource limitations and techno-economic risks by reviewing and analysing 2030 NECP targets compared to statistical energy use data in these countries. The results indicate that the NECPs of Denmark and Germany are particularly exposed to risks related to global raw material availability, as Denmark plans to rapidly grow the share of wind and solar PV in electricity generation to 81% and 13% by 2030, respectively, followed by Germany, which outlines a 39% and 16% share of wind and solar PV in its national climate strategy. The NECPs of Finland and Germany are also shown to be vulnerable to limitations in biomass availability, as there is a significant disparity between the projected biomass usage and legally binding European Union (EU) targets for land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector emissions in 2030 in these countries.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1538
Number of pages17
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2024
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


  • biomass availability
  • climate neutrality
  • climate policy
  • critical raw materials
  • Denmark
  • Estonia
  • Finland
  • Germany
  • resource adequacy
  • Sweden


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  • FinEst Twins: FinEst Twins

    Nieminen, M.


    Project: EU: Framework programmes funding

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