Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks

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Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks. / Marchand, Philippe; Carr, Joel A.; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; Fader, Marianela; Gephart, Jessica A.; Kummu, Matti; Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Porkka, Miina; Puma, Michael J.; Ratajczak, Zak; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Seekell, David A.; Suweis, Samir; Tavoni, Alessandro; D'Odorico, Paolo.

In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, No. 9, 095009, 09.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Harvard

Marchand, P, Carr, JA, Dell'Angelo, J, Fader, M, Gephart, JA, Kummu, M, Magliocca, NR, Porkka, M, Puma, MJ, Ratajczak, Z, Rulli, MC, Seekell, DA, Suweis, S, Tavoni, A & D'Odorico, P 2016, 'Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks' Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, no. 9, 095009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009

APA

Marchand, P., Carr, J. A., Dell'Angelo, J., Fader, M., Gephart, J. A., Kummu, M., ... D'Odorico, P. (2016). Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks. Environmental Research Letters, 11(9), [095009]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009

Vancouver

Author

Marchand, Philippe ; Carr, Joel A. ; Dell'Angelo, Jampel ; Fader, Marianela ; Gephart, Jessica A. ; Kummu, Matti ; Magliocca, Nicholas R. ; Porkka, Miina ; Puma, Michael J. ; Ratajczak, Zak ; Rulli, Maria Cristina ; Seekell, David A. ; Suweis, Samir ; Tavoni, Alessandro ; D'Odorico, Paolo. / Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2016 ; Vol. 11, No. 9.

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@article{d64c234e65304d54a9f5e3de9dbd94ec,
title = "Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks",
abstract = "While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.",
keywords = "food systems, resilience, food crises, LAND-USE, INTERNATIONAL-TRADE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, GLOBALIZATION, DISPLACEMENT, SECURITY, NATIONS, WATER",
author = "Philippe Marchand and Carr, {Joel A.} and Jampel Dell'Angelo and Marianela Fader and Gephart, {Jessica A.} and Matti Kummu and Magliocca, {Nicholas R.} and Miina Porkka and Puma, {Michael J.} and Zak Ratajczak and Rulli, {Maria Cristina} and Seekell, {David A.} and Samir Suweis and Alessandro Tavoni and Paolo D'Odorico",
year = "2016",
month = "9",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing",
number = "9",

}

RIS - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks

AU - Marchand, Philippe

AU - Carr, Joel A.

AU - Dell'Angelo, Jampel

AU - Fader, Marianela

AU - Gephart, Jessica A.

AU - Kummu, Matti

AU - Magliocca, Nicholas R.

AU - Porkka, Miina

AU - Puma, Michael J.

AU - Ratajczak, Zak

AU - Rulli, Maria Cristina

AU - Seekell, David A.

AU - Suweis, Samir

AU - Tavoni, Alessandro

AU - D'Odorico, Paolo

PY - 2016/9

Y1 - 2016/9

N2 - While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

AB - While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

KW - food systems

KW - resilience

KW - food crises

KW - LAND-USE

KW - INTERNATIONAL-TRADE

KW - AGRICULTURAL TRADE

KW - GLOBALIZATION

KW - DISPLACEMENT

KW - SECURITY

KW - NATIONS

KW - WATER

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009

M3 - Article

VL - 11

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 9

M1 - 095009

ER -

ID: 9490400