Replacing hard coal with wind and nuclear power in Finland-impacts on electricity and district heating markets

Finland has recently adopted a high profile in climate change mitigation. Finland has declared a national target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035. As a part of this, the use of coal for energy purposes has been banned from year 2029 onwards. The Finnish electricity system is already very low-carbon, and more wind and nuclear power is being constructed. However, District heating (DH) is a backbone of the Finnish energy system, and it is still quite reliant on fossil fuels and domestic high-emission fuel peat, their share being 51% of DH fuels in 2018. This paper models the impacts of this transition on the electricity markets and DH systems and develops scenarios with a large-scale transition to wind and nuclear power and heat pumps in DH systems. The study finds that large-scale introduction of heat pumps would be profitable in cities Helsinki, Espoo, Turku and Vantaa, especially with the planned decrease of electricity tax. The study indicates that the impacts on Winter time capacity adequacy could be managed, but this requires considerable increases in nuclear and wind capacity.