Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

Yuan Bai; Zhanwei Du; Lin Wang; Eric H.Y. Lau; Isaac Chun Hai Fung; Petter Holme; Benjamin J. Cowling; Alison P. Galvani; Robert M. Krug; Lauren Ancel Meyers

doi:10.3201/eid3002.230835

Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

Yuan Bai
, Zhanwei Du
, Lin Wang
, Eric H.Y. Lau
, Isaac Chun Hai Fung
, Petter Holme
, Benjamin J. Cowling
, Alison P. Galvani
, Robert M. Krug
, Lauren Ancel Meyers^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

University of Hong Kong
University of Cambridge
Deakin University
Georgia Southern University
Kobe University
Yale University
University of Texas at Austin
Santa Fe Institute
Hong Kong Science and Technology Park

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)

3 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03–0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62–$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36–1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49–$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	262-269
Number of pages	8
Journal	Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume	30
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3201/eid3002.230835
Publication status	Published - Feb 2024
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

Financial support was provided by the AIR@InnoHK Programme from Innovation and Technology Commission of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the US National Institutes of Health (grant no. R01 AI151176), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID Supplement (grant no. U01IP001136), Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (grant no. 21200632) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 82304204). The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

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Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19_United StatesFinal published version, 1.59 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States",

abstract = "We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20\% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95\% CI 0.03–0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US \$56.95 billion (95\% CI US \$2.62–\$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95\% CI 0.36–1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US \$170.17 billion (95\% CI US \$60.49–\$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.",

author = "Yuan Bai and Zhanwei Du and Lin Wang and Lau, \{Eric H.Y.\} and Fung, \{Isaac Chun Hai\} and Petter Holme and Cowling, \{Benjamin J.\} and Galvani, \{Alison P.\} and Krug, \{Robert M.\} and Meyers, \{Lauren Ancel\}",

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AU - Holme, Petter

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AU - Krug, Robert M.

AU - Meyers, Lauren Ancel

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Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

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UN SDGs

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