Probability scoring rules, ambiguity, multiattribute terrorist utility, and sensitivity analysis

L. Robin Keller*, Ali Abbas, J. Eric Bickel, Vicki M. Bier, David V. Budescu, John C. Butler, Philippe Delquié, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jason R W Merrick, Ahti Salo, George Wu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalReview Articlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This issue's "From the Editors" column is coauthored with all the associate editors, to emphasize their major role in the leadership of the journal. We first review this year's operations and thank our editorial board and referees. Our first article, by David J. Johnstone, Victor Richmond R. Jose, and Robert L. Winkler, presents "Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities," which take into account the decision maker's specific situation. Next, in "Do Bayesians Learn Their Way Out of Ambiguity?," Alexander Zimper addresses how people perceive ambiguous probabilities and how they update their perceptions. In our third article, Chen Wang and Vicki M. Bier examine "Target-Hardening Decisions Based on Uncertain Multiattribute Terrorist Utility." The final article, by Stephen P. Chambal, Jeffery D. Weir, Yucel R. Kahraman, and Alex J. Gutman, is on "A Practical Procedure for Customizable One-Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models."

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)251-255
Number of pages5
JournalDecision Analysis
Volume8
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2011
MoE publication typeA2 Review article in a scientific journal

Keywords

  • Additive value models
  • Bayes' method
  • Bayesian learning
  • Choquet expected utility theory
  • Decision analysis
  • Editorial
  • Game theory
  • Homeland security
  • Incentives
  • Multiattribute utility
  • Multiattribute value
  • Nonadditive probability measures
  • Parametric analysis
  • Probability evaluation
  • Probability forecasts
  • Scoring rules
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Uncertainty
  • Utility
  • Value-focused thinking

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