Probabilistic meta-models evaluating accidental oil spill size from tankers

Jakub Montewka, Floris Goerlandt, Xing Zheng

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterScientificpeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In this paper, we introduce two probabilistic meta-models evaluating accidental oil spill volume for two types of tanker: VLCC and Aframax and two types of accident: collision and grounding. The metamodels utilize two engineering models, one for ship damage estimation due to an accident, another for evaluation of an oil spill size given the damage extent. Both models are coupled and executed for a large number of accidental scenarios, thus two extensive datasets are developed, one for collision and one for grounding accident. Subsequently, the datasets are used to develop two casual, probabilistic meta-models by applying the Bayesian Networks. The obtained results are compared with the real-life cases, and good agreement is found.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationInformation, Communication and Environment
    Subtitle of host publicationMarine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
    EditorsNeumann Tomasz Weintrit Adam
    Place of PublicationLondon, UK
    Pages231-241
    Number of pages11
    ISBN (Electronic)978-1-315-67258-8
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    MoE publication typeA3 Part of a book or another research book

    Keywords

    • Bayesian networks
    • Meta-model
    • Oil spill size
    • Tankers

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  • Cite this

    Montewka, J., Goerlandt, F., & Zheng, X. (2015). Probabilistic meta-models evaluating accidental oil spill size from tankers. In N. T. Weintrit Adam (Ed.), Information, Communication and Environment: Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation (pp. 231-241).