Abstract
In this paper, we introduce two probabilistic meta-models evaluating accidental oil spill volume for two types of tanker: VLCC and Aframax and two types of accident: collision and grounding. The metamodels utilize two engineering models, one for ship damage estimation due to an accident, another for evaluation of an oil spill size given the damage extent. Both models are coupled and executed for a large number of accidental scenarios, thus two extensive datasets are developed, one for collision and one for grounding accident. Subsequently, the datasets are used to develop two casual, probabilistic meta-models by applying the Bayesian Networks. The obtained results are compared with the real-life cases, and good agreement is found.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Information, Communication and Environment |
Subtitle of host publication | Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation |
Editors | Neumann Tomasz Weintrit Adam |
Place of Publication | London, UK |
Publisher | CRC Press |
Pages | 231-241 |
Number of pages | 11 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 978-1-315-67258-8 |
ISBN (Print) | 978-1-138-02857-9 |
Publication status | Published - 2015 |
MoE publication type | A3 Book section, Chapters in research books |
Keywords
- Bayesian networks
- Meta-model
- Oil spill size
- Tankers