Price level targeting with evolving credibility

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Researchers

Research units

  • University of Birmingham

Abstract

Global learning dynamics for price-level targeting (PLT) monetary policy are analyzed and compared to inflation targeting in a nonlinear New Keynesian model. Domain of attraction of target steady state is a new robustness criterion for policy regimes. Robustness of PLT depends on whether a known target path is incorporated into learning. Credibility is measured by accuracy of this forecasting method relative to simple statistical forecasts evolving through reinforcement learning. Initial credibility and target price are key factors influencing performance. Model results are in line with the Swedish experience of price stabilization in1930's.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages16
JournalJOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 13 Sep 2019
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Research areas

  • Adaptive learning, Inflation targeting, Limited credibility, Zero interest rate lower bound

ID: 38162065