Predicting ice load amplitudes on ship bow based on ship speed and ice conditions in the Southern Sea

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionProfessional


Transportation in ice prone waters is a timely topic due to the pursuit for natural resources and sea routes. The new Polar Code and aging vessels encourage modernizing the fleet going in Southern Sea. Polar supply and research vessel S.A. Agulhas II voyaged in Antarctic waters during austral summer 2013-2014. The ice-induced loads on ship bow were measured while the ship operated in ice. The operational conditions are described by ship speed, whereas the ice concentration was measured with visual observations while a stereo camera measured the solid surface ice layer thickness. The ice conditions varied from thin, first-year ice floes that the ship could push aside to thick, multiyear ice. The aim of this paper is to study how different ice and operational conditions affect the ice loads on ship bow. A model utilizing hierarchical Gaussian process was developed to study how the load distribution parameters change as a function of different ice and operational conditions. The results suggest that different conditions affect the ice load distributions.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the International Conference on Ships and Offshore Structures
EditorsJeom Kee Paik, Sören Ehlers
Number of pages12
Publication statusPublished - 31 Aug 2016
MoE publication typeD3 Professional conference proceedings
EventInternational Conference on Ships and Offshore Structures - Hamburg, Germany
Duration: 31 Aug 20162 Sep 2016
Conference number: 1


ConferenceInternational Conference on Ships and Offshore Structures
Abbreviated titleICSOS
Internet address


  • ice loads; ice conditions; ice thickness; prediction; Bayesian statistics; Gaussian process


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