Possible bottlenecks in clean energy transitions : Overview and modelled effects – Case Finland

Johannes Hyvönen; Tero Koivunen; Sanna Syri

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137317

Possible bottlenecks in clean energy transitions : Overview and modelled effects – Case Finland

Johannes Hyvönen^*
, Tero Koivunen
, Sanna Syri

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

32 Citations (Scopus)

195 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Limiting the negative effects of human-induced global warming is the focus of climate policy worldwide. In the European Union (EU), the target for reaching carbon neutrality is set to 2050, including a proposed renewable energy target of 45% for 2030. In Finland, the government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions already by 2035, which is expected to require large increases in wind and nuclear capacity, as well as sector coupling with, e.g., transport and heating. In view of these plans, this study evaluates the feasibility of attaining carbon neutrality in Finland by 2035, while considering delays from potential bottlenecks, such as limited raw material availability, fuel availability, manufacturing capacity, and import reliance. The literature review highlights the considerable dependence of renewable technologies on critical raw materials and other minerals, largely imported from non-EU countries. Modelling revealed how increased biomass usage considerably reduces the size of national carbon sinks, vital for reaching net-zero emissions in Finland in the coming decade. In light of this, current climate strategy was shown to be partially outdated and short of reaching carbon neutrality by 2035, already without including potential delays from the analyzed bottlenecks. Subsequently, alternative measures to improve sustainability and reduce emissions are presented. The findings of this paper are also relevant for other countries aiming to reach net-zero emissions, especially for those which have climate strategies emphasizing bioenergy and wind power.

Original language	English
Article number	137317
Number of pages	15
Journal	Journal of Cleaner Production
Volume	410
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137317
Publication status	Published - 15 Jul 2023
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

Past research has modelled pathways to Finnish carbon neutrality using various optimization tools (Koljonen et al., 2022; Lehtilä et al., 2021; Ministry of the Environment Finland, 2022). However, even at international level, it is rare that studies would include assessments on the impact of potential bottlenecks in modelled energy system scenarios towards carbon neutrality. In its 2021 report on the role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions (IEA, 2021), the International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasized how growth in renewable energy technologies will exponentially increase demand for critical raw materials (CRMs) in the coming decade, while also highlighting supply chain risks following a concentrated global supply of raw materials. Other studies, such as a recent report by the European Commission, support the findings of the IEA by showing the importance of CRMs in several strategic technologies as well as in the energy sector (Bobba et al., 2020; Carrara et al., 2020).This article received funding from the European Commission through the H2020 project Finest Twins (grant No. 856602) and from the Academy of Finland, through the Profiling Funding 5 for Energy Storage project (grant No. 326346). This article received funding from the European Commission through the H2020 project Finest Twins (grant No. 856602 ) and from the Academy of Finland , through the Profiling Funding 5 for Energy Storage project (grant No. 326346 ).

Keywords

Biomass
Carbon sink
Critical raw materials (CRM)
Energy policy
Renewable energy

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137317Licence: CC BY

1-s2.0-S0959652623014750-mainFinal published version, 3.56 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{10093317a202455594958008f0b7ad08,

title = "Possible bottlenecks in clean energy transitions : Overview and modelled effects – Case Finland",

abstract = "Limiting the negative effects of human-induced global warming is the focus of climate policy worldwide. In the European Union (EU), the target for reaching carbon neutrality is set to 2050, including a proposed renewable energy target of 45\% for 2030. In Finland, the government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions already by 2035, which is expected to require large increases in wind and nuclear capacity, as well as sector coupling with, e.g., transport and heating. In view of these plans, this study evaluates the feasibility of attaining carbon neutrality in Finland by 2035, while considering delays from potential bottlenecks, such as limited raw material availability, fuel availability, manufacturing capacity, and import reliance. The literature review highlights the considerable dependence of renewable technologies on critical raw materials and other minerals, largely imported from non-EU countries. Modelling revealed how increased biomass usage considerably reduces the size of national carbon sinks, vital for reaching net-zero emissions in Finland in the coming decade. In light of this, current climate strategy was shown to be partially outdated and short of reaching carbon neutrality by 2035, already without including potential delays from the analyzed bottlenecks. Subsequently, alternative measures to improve sustainability and reduce emissions are presented. The findings of this paper are also relevant for other countries aiming to reach net-zero emissions, especially for those which have climate strategies emphasizing bioenergy and wind power.",

keywords = "Biomass, Carbon sink, Critical raw materials (CRM), Energy policy, Renewable energy",

author = "Johannes Hyv{\"o}nen and Tero Koivunen and Sanna Syri",

note = "| openaire: EC/H2020/856602/EU//FINEST TWINS Funding Information: Past research has modelled pathways to Finnish carbon neutrality using various optimization tools (Koljonen et al., 2022; Lehtil{\"a} et al., 2021; Ministry of the Environment Finland, 2022). However, even at international level, it is rare that studies would include assessments on the impact of potential bottlenecks in modelled energy system scenarios towards carbon neutrality. In its 2021 report on the role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions (IEA, 2021), the International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasized how growth in renewable energy technologies will exponentially increase demand for critical raw materials (CRMs) in the coming decade, while also highlighting supply chain risks following a concentrated global supply of raw materials. Other studies, such as a recent report by the European Commission, support the findings of the IEA by showing the importance of CRMs in several strategic technologies as well as in the energy sector (Bobba et al., 2020; Carrara et al., 2020). This article received funding from the European Commission through the H2020 project Finest Twins (grant No. 856602) and from the Academy of Finland, through the Profiling Funding 5 for Energy Storage project (grant No. 326346). Funding Information: This article received funding from the European Commission through the H2020 project Finest Twins (grant No. 856602 ) and from the Academy of Finland , through the Profiling Funding 5 for Energy Storage project (grant No. 326346 ). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Author(s)",

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N2 - Limiting the negative effects of human-induced global warming is the focus of climate policy worldwide. In the European Union (EU), the target for reaching carbon neutrality is set to 2050, including a proposed renewable energy target of 45% for 2030. In Finland, the government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions already by 2035, which is expected to require large increases in wind and nuclear capacity, as well as sector coupling with, e.g., transport and heating. In view of these plans, this study evaluates the feasibility of attaining carbon neutrality in Finland by 2035, while considering delays from potential bottlenecks, such as limited raw material availability, fuel availability, manufacturing capacity, and import reliance. The literature review highlights the considerable dependence of renewable technologies on critical raw materials and other minerals, largely imported from non-EU countries. Modelling revealed how increased biomass usage considerably reduces the size of national carbon sinks, vital for reaching net-zero emissions in Finland in the coming decade. In light of this, current climate strategy was shown to be partially outdated and short of reaching carbon neutrality by 2035, already without including potential delays from the analyzed bottlenecks. Subsequently, alternative measures to improve sustainability and reduce emissions are presented. The findings of this paper are also relevant for other countries aiming to reach net-zero emissions, especially for those which have climate strategies emphasizing bioenergy and wind power.

AB - Limiting the negative effects of human-induced global warming is the focus of climate policy worldwide. In the European Union (EU), the target for reaching carbon neutrality is set to 2050, including a proposed renewable energy target of 45% for 2030. In Finland, the government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions already by 2035, which is expected to require large increases in wind and nuclear capacity, as well as sector coupling with, e.g., transport and heating. In view of these plans, this study evaluates the feasibility of attaining carbon neutrality in Finland by 2035, while considering delays from potential bottlenecks, such as limited raw material availability, fuel availability, manufacturing capacity, and import reliance. The literature review highlights the considerable dependence of renewable technologies on critical raw materials and other minerals, largely imported from non-EU countries. Modelling revealed how increased biomass usage considerably reduces the size of national carbon sinks, vital for reaching net-zero emissions in Finland in the coming decade. In light of this, current climate strategy was shown to be partially outdated and short of reaching carbon neutrality by 2035, already without including potential delays from the analyzed bottlenecks. Subsequently, alternative measures to improve sustainability and reduce emissions are presented. The findings of this paper are also relevant for other countries aiming to reach net-zero emissions, especially for those which have climate strategies emphasizing bioenergy and wind power.

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KW - Carbon sink

KW - Critical raw materials (CRM)

KW - Energy policy

KW - Renewable energy

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SN - 0959-6526

VL - 410

JO - Journal of Cleaner Production

JF - Journal of Cleaner Production

M1 - 137317

ER -

Possible bottlenecks in clean energy transitions : Overview and modelled effects – Case Finland

Abstract

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Keywords

UN SDGs

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Researchers from Aalto University Describe Findings in Environment and Sustainability Research (Possible Bottlenecks In Clean Energy Transitions: Overview and Modelled Effects-case Finland)

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Possible bottlenecks in clean energy transitions : Overview and modelled effects – Case Finland

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

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Researchers from Aalto University Describe Findings in Environment and Sustainability Research (Possible Bottlenecks In Clean Energy Transitions: Overview and Modelled Effects-case Finland)

Cite this