Politicians' Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery

Manuel Fernandez Bagues, Berta Esteve-Volart

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Incumbent politicians tend to receive more votes when economic conditions are good. In this paper we explore the source of this correlation, exploiting the exceptional evidence provided by the Spanish Christmas Lottery. Because winning tickets are typically sold by one lottery outlet, winners tend to be geographically clustered. This allows us to study the impact of exogenous good economic conditions on voting behavior. We find that incumbents receive significantly more votes in winning provinces. The evidence is consistent with a temporary increase in happiness making voters more lenient toward the incumbent, or with a stronger preference for the status quo.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1269-1294
Number of pages26
JournalJOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
Volume124
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2016
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • INCOME
  • WINNERS
  • EVENTS
  • PRIZES

Cite this