Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Tomas Roslin*, Laura Antão, Maria Hällfors, Evgeniy Meyke, Coong Lo, Gleb Tikhonov, Maria del Mar Delgado, Eliezer Gurarie, Marina Abadonova, Ozodbek Abduraimov, Olga Adrianova, Tatiana Akimova, Muzhigit Akkiev, Aleksandr Ananin, Elena Andreeva, Natalia Andriychuk, Maxim Antipin, Konstantin Arzamascev, Svetlana Babina, Miroslav BabushkinOleg Bakin, Anna Barabancova, Inna Basilskaja, Nina Belova, Natalia Belyaeva, Tatjana Bespalova, Evgeniya Bisikalova, Anatoly Bobretsov, Vladimir Bobrov, Vadim Bobrovskyi, Elena Bochkareva, Gennady Bogdanov, Vladimir Bolshakov, Svetlana Bondarchuk, Evgeniya Bukharova, Alena Butunina, Yuri Buyvolov, Anna Buyvolova, Yuri Bykov, Elena Chakhireva, Olga Chashchina, Nadezhda Cherenkova, Sergej Chistjakov, Svetlana Chuhontseva, Evgeniy A. Davydov, Viktor Demchenko, Elena Diadicheva, Aleksandr Dobrolyubov, Ludmila Dostoyevskaya, Svetlana Drovnina, Zoya Drozdova, Akynaly Dubanaev, Yuriy Dubrovsky, Sergey Elsukov, Lidia Epova, Olga Ermakova, Olga S. Ermakova, Elena Ershkova, Aleksandra Esengeldenova, Oleg Evstigneev, Irina Fedchenko, Violetta Fedotova, Tatiana Filatova, Sergey Gashev, Anatoliy Gavrilov, Irina Gaydysh, Dmitrij Golovcov, Nadezhda Goncharova, Elena Gorbunova, Tatyana Gordeeva, Vitaly Grishchenko, Ludmila Gromyko, Vladimir Hohryakov, Alexander Hritankov, Elena Ignatenko, Svetlana Igosheva, Uliya Ivanova, Natalya Ivanova, Yury Kalinkin, Evgeniya Kaygorodova, Fedor Kazansky, Darya Kiseleva, Anastasia Knorre, Leonid Kolpashikov, Evgenii Korobov, Helen Korolyova, Natalia Korotkikh, Gennadiy Kosenkov, Sergey Kossenko, Elvira Kotlugalyamova, Evgeny Kozlovsky, Vladimir Kozsheechkin, Alla Kozurak, Irina Kozyr, Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva, Sergey Kruglikov, Olga Kuberskaya, Aleksey Kudryavtsev, Elena Kulebyakina, Yuliia Kulsha, Margarita Kupriyanova, Murad Kurbanbagamaev, Anatoliy Kutenkov, Nadezhda Kutenkova, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Evgeniy Larin, Pavel Lebedev, Kirill Litvinov, Natalia Luzhkova, Azizbek Mahmudov, Lidiya Makovkina, Viktor Mamontov, Svetlana Mayorova, Irina Megalinskaja, Artur Meydus, Aleksandr Minin, Oleg Mitrofanov, Mykhailo Motruk, Aleksandr Myslenkov, Nina Nasonova, Natalia Nemtseva, Irina Nesterova, Tamara Nezdoliy, Tatyana Niroda, Tatiana Novikova, Darya Panicheva, Alexey Pavlov, Klara Pavlova, Sergei Podolski, Natalja Polikarpova, Tatiana Polyanskaya, Igor Pospelov, Elena Pospelova, Ilya Prokhorov, Irina Prokosheva, Lyudmila Puchnina, Ivan Putrashyk, Julia Raiskaya, Yuri Rozhkov, Olga Rozhkova, Marina Rudenko, Irina Rybnikova, Svetlana Rykova, Miroslava Sahnevich, Alexander Samoylov, Valeri Sanko, Inna Sapelnikova, Sergei Sazonov, Zoya Selyunina, Ksenia Shalaeva, Maksim Shashkov, Anatoliy Shcherbakov, Vasyl Shevchyk, Sergej Shubin, Elena Shujskaja, Rustam Sibgatullin, Natalia Sikkila, Elena Sitnikova, Andrei Sivkov, Nataliya Skok, Svetlana Skorokhodova, Elena Smirnova, Galina Sokolova, Vladimir Sopin, Yurii Spasovski, Sergei Stepanov, Vitalіy Stratiy, Violetta Strekalovskaya, Alexander Sukhov, Guzalya Suleymanova, Lilija Sultangareeva, Viktorija Teleganova, Viktor Teplov, Valentina Teplova, Tatiana Tertitsa, Vladislav Timoshkin, Dmitry Tirski, Andrej Tolmachev, Aleksey Tomilin, Ludmila Tselishcheva, Mirabdulla Turgunov, Yurij Tyukh, Polina Van, Vladimir Van, Aleksander Vasin, Aleksandra Vasina, Anatoliy Vekliuk, Lidia Vetchinnikova, Vladislav Vinogradov, Nikolay Volodchenkov, Inna Voloshina, Tura Xoliqov, Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Vladimir Yakovlev, Marina Yakovleva, Oksana Yantser, Yurij Yarema, Andrey Zahvatov, Valery Zakharov, Nicolay Zelenetskiy, Anatolii Zheltukhin, Tatyana Zubina, Juri Kurhinen, Otso Ovaskainen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages21
JournalNATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Early online date2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28 Jan 2021
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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