Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply

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Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply. / Fader, Marianela; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Carr, Joel; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; D'Odorico, Paolo; Gephart, Jessica A.; Kummu, Matti; Magliocca, Nicholas; Porkka, Miina; Prell, Christina; Puma, Michael J.; Ratajczak, Zak; Aseekell, David; Suweis, Samir; Tavoni, Alessandro.

In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, No. 5, 055008, 17.05.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Harvard

Fader, M, Rulli, MC, Carr, J, Dell'Angelo, J, D'Odorico, P, Gephart, JA, Kummu, M, Magliocca, N, Porkka, M, Prell, C, Puma, MJ, Ratajczak, Z, Aseekell, D, Suweis, S & Tavoni, A 2016, 'Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply' Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, no. 5, 055008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055008

APA

Fader, M., Rulli, M. C., Carr, J., Dell'Angelo, J., D'Odorico, P., Gephart, J. A., ... Tavoni, A. (2016). Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply. Environmental Research Letters, 11(5), [055008]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055008

Vancouver

Author

Fader, Marianela ; Rulli, Maria Cristina ; Carr, Joel ; Dell'Angelo, Jampel ; D'Odorico, Paolo ; Gephart, Jessica A. ; Kummu, Matti ; Magliocca, Nicholas ; Porkka, Miina ; Prell, Christina ; Puma, Michael J. ; Ratajczak, Zak ; Aseekell, David ; Suweis, Samir ; Tavoni, Alessandro. / Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2016 ; Vol. 11, No. 5.

Bibtex - Download

@article{498f16d1f4104b6e90eaf0c6b3c28cb3,
title = "Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply",
abstract = "Spatially diverse trends in population growth, climate change, industrialization, urbanization and economic development are expected to change future food supply and demand. These changes may affect the suitability of land for food production, implying elevated risks especially for resourceconstrained, food-importing countries.Wepresent the evolution of biophysical redundancy for agricultural production at country level, from 1992 to 2012. Biophysical redundancy, defined as unused biotic and abiotic environmental resources, is represented by the potential food production of 'spare land', available water resources (i.e., not already used for human activities), as well as production increases through yield gap closure on cultivated areas and potential agricultural areas. In 2012, the biophysical redundancy of 75 (48) countries, mainly in North Africa, Western Europe, the Middle East and Asia, was insufficient to produce the caloric nutritional needs for at least 50{\%} (25{\%}) of their population during a year. Biophysical redundancy has decreased in the last two decades in 102 out of 155 countries, 11 of these went from high to limited redundancy, and nine of these from limited to very low redundancy. Although the variability of the drivers of change across different countries is high, improvements in yield and population growth have a clear impact on the decreases of redundancy towards the very low redundancy category.Wetook a more detailed look at countries classified as 'Low Income Economies (LIEs)' since they are particularly vulnerable to domestic or external food supply changes, due to their limited capacity to offset for food supply decreases with higher purchasing power on the international market. Currently, nine LIEs have limited or very low biophysical redundancy. Many of these showed a decrease in redundancy over the last two decades, which is not always linked with improvements in per capita food availability.",
keywords = "Productivity, Redundancy, Resilience, Spare land, Water, Yield gap",
author = "Marianela Fader and Rulli, {Maria Cristina} and Joel Carr and Jampel Dell'Angelo and Paolo D'Odorico and Gephart, {Jessica A.} and Matti Kummu and Nicholas Magliocca and Miina Porkka and Christina Prell and Puma, {Michael J.} and Zak Ratajczak and David Aseekell and Samir Suweis and Alessandro Tavoni",
year = "2016",
month = "5",
day = "17",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055008",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing",
number = "5",

}

RIS - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply

AU - Fader, Marianela

AU - Rulli, Maria Cristina

AU - Carr, Joel

AU - Dell'Angelo, Jampel

AU - D'Odorico, Paolo

AU - Gephart, Jessica A.

AU - Kummu, Matti

AU - Magliocca, Nicholas

AU - Porkka, Miina

AU - Prell, Christina

AU - Puma, Michael J.

AU - Ratajczak, Zak

AU - Aseekell, David

AU - Suweis, Samir

AU - Tavoni, Alessandro

PY - 2016/5/17

Y1 - 2016/5/17

N2 - Spatially diverse trends in population growth, climate change, industrialization, urbanization and economic development are expected to change future food supply and demand. These changes may affect the suitability of land for food production, implying elevated risks especially for resourceconstrained, food-importing countries.Wepresent the evolution of biophysical redundancy for agricultural production at country level, from 1992 to 2012. Biophysical redundancy, defined as unused biotic and abiotic environmental resources, is represented by the potential food production of 'spare land', available water resources (i.e., not already used for human activities), as well as production increases through yield gap closure on cultivated areas and potential agricultural areas. In 2012, the biophysical redundancy of 75 (48) countries, mainly in North Africa, Western Europe, the Middle East and Asia, was insufficient to produce the caloric nutritional needs for at least 50% (25%) of their population during a year. Biophysical redundancy has decreased in the last two decades in 102 out of 155 countries, 11 of these went from high to limited redundancy, and nine of these from limited to very low redundancy. Although the variability of the drivers of change across different countries is high, improvements in yield and population growth have a clear impact on the decreases of redundancy towards the very low redundancy category.Wetook a more detailed look at countries classified as 'Low Income Economies (LIEs)' since they are particularly vulnerable to domestic or external food supply changes, due to their limited capacity to offset for food supply decreases with higher purchasing power on the international market. Currently, nine LIEs have limited or very low biophysical redundancy. Many of these showed a decrease in redundancy over the last two decades, which is not always linked with improvements in per capita food availability.

AB - Spatially diverse trends in population growth, climate change, industrialization, urbanization and economic development are expected to change future food supply and demand. These changes may affect the suitability of land for food production, implying elevated risks especially for resourceconstrained, food-importing countries.Wepresent the evolution of biophysical redundancy for agricultural production at country level, from 1992 to 2012. Biophysical redundancy, defined as unused biotic and abiotic environmental resources, is represented by the potential food production of 'spare land', available water resources (i.e., not already used for human activities), as well as production increases through yield gap closure on cultivated areas and potential agricultural areas. In 2012, the biophysical redundancy of 75 (48) countries, mainly in North Africa, Western Europe, the Middle East and Asia, was insufficient to produce the caloric nutritional needs for at least 50% (25%) of their population during a year. Biophysical redundancy has decreased in the last two decades in 102 out of 155 countries, 11 of these went from high to limited redundancy, and nine of these from limited to very low redundancy. Although the variability of the drivers of change across different countries is high, improvements in yield and population growth have a clear impact on the decreases of redundancy towards the very low redundancy category.Wetook a more detailed look at countries classified as 'Low Income Economies (LIEs)' since they are particularly vulnerable to domestic or external food supply changes, due to their limited capacity to offset for food supply decreases with higher purchasing power on the international market. Currently, nine LIEs have limited or very low biophysical redundancy. Many of these showed a decrease in redundancy over the last two decades, which is not always linked with improvements in per capita food availability.

KW - Productivity

KW - Redundancy

KW - Resilience

KW - Spare land

KW - Water

KW - Yield gap

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84979498126&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055008

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055008

M3 - Article

VL - 11

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 5

M1 - 055008

ER -

ID: 4828065