Past and Future Sea Level Changes and Land Uplift in the Baltic Sea Seen by Geodetic Observations

Maaria Nordman*, Aleksi Peltola, Mirjam Bilker-Koivula, Sonja Lahtinen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterScientificpeer-review

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Abstract

We have studied the land uplift and relative sea level changes in the Baltic Sea in northern Europe. To observe the past changes and land uplift, we have used continuous GNSS time series, campaign-wise absolute gravity measurements and continuous tide gauge time series. To predict the future, we have used probabilistic future scenarios tuned for the Baltic Sea. The area we are interested in is Kvarken archipelago in Finland and High Coast in Sweden. These areas form a UNESCO World Heritage Site, where the land uplift process and how it demonstrates itself are the main values. We provide here the latest numbers of land uplift for the area, the current rates from geodetic observations, and probabilistic scenarios for future relative sea level rise. The maximum land uplift rates in Fennoscandia are in the Bothnian Bay of the Baltic Sea, where the maximum values are currently on the order of 10 mm/year with respect to the geoid. During the last 100 years, the land has risen from the sea by approximately 80 cm in this area. Estimates of future relative sea level change have considerable uncertainty, with values for the year 2100 ranging from 75 cm of sea level fall (land emergence) to 30 cm of sea-level rise.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Association of Geodesy Symposia
Chapter124
Pages1-7
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 29 Sep 2020
MoE publication typeA3 Part of a book or another research book

Publication series

NameInternational Association of Geodesy symposia

Keywords

  • Baltic Sea
  • Geodetic time series
  • Land uplift
  • Sea level rise

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