Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study

Francesco Fuso Nerini*, Ilkka Keppo, Neil Strachan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

With an application on the UK, this paper shows that myopic planning might result in delayed strategic investments and in considerably higher costs for achieving decarbonisation targets compared to estimates done with perfect foresight optimisation energy models. It also suggests that carbon prices obtained from perfect foresight energy models might be under-estimated. The study was performed using a combination of the standard UK Times Model (UKTM), a perfect foresight, bottom-up, technology-rich cost optimisation energy model, and its myopic foresight version: My-UKTM. This also demonstrates that using perfect foresight optimisation models in tandem with their myopic equivalents can provide valuable indications for policy design.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)19-26
Number of pages8
JournalEnergy Strategy Reviews
Volume17
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2017
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • Energy systems decarbonisation
  • Myopic models
  • Optimisation energy models
  • Perfect foresight
  • Technology diffusion
  • TIMES model
  • United Kingdom

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