Modelling energy production flexibility: System dynamics approach

Armands Gravelsins*, Gatis Bazbauers, Andra Blumberga, Dagnija Blumberga, Simon Bolwig, Antje Klitkou, Peter D. Lund

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleScientificpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)
59 Downloads (Pure)


Article shows how system dynamics modelling (SDM) approach could be used in modelling the energy transition towards low carbon energy system. SDM can be used to combine the techno-economic and socio-technical analysis. The study considers flexibility issues related to integration of renewable energy sources. Simplified model structure is made to illustrate how flexibility as well as other socio-technical aspects might be modelled. Results of the model correspond to the behavior anticipated from the model structure. Namely, model imitates effects of technological disruption which rises the limits of intermittent power production from renewable sources which can be integrated into power system. The limits are increased stepwise, as a share of intermittent power production reaches certain threshold value, resulting in sequence of S-shaped growth. This study presents flexibility increase of a power system conceptually and more detailed study should uncover leverage points which could stimulate this increase and thus, transition to sustainable energy system.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)503-509
Number of pages7
JournalEnergy Procedia
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
EventConference of Environmental and Climate Technologies - Riga, Latvia
Duration: 16 May 201818 May 2018


  • energy flexibility
  • energy transition
  • low carbon energy systems
  • sustainable energy system
  • system dynamics modelling


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