Modeling invasion dynamics of Colorado potato beetle to test spatially targeted management strategy

S. Ooperi*, A. Jolma

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientificpeer-review

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB), Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say), one of the most destructive pests of potato, is currently spreading in northern Europe. The species is already numerous in Russia and the Baltic countries, so there is a substantial risk for massive aerial immigration to Finland. In Finland, CPB is a quarantine pest, so all infected sites are aggressively eradicated. In this paper, we will introduce a modeling framework which can be used for testing effectiveness of eradication scheme based on risk mapping, an unexplored option, for the case when a massive aerial immigration takes place and the current strategy without prioritizing will most likely fail. We tackle the problem by introducing a spatially explicit population model that accounts for temporally varying resources for the growth, dispersal, and overwintering of the invaders. The neighborhood structure for dispersal is hierarchical, in order to mimic the stratified dispersal behavior of the beetle during invasions. To test a spatially targeted strategy we introduce here a concept of Key Cells. These cells connect one of more habitat clusters together facilitating further spread of CPB to new clusters. The number of adults that move to new sites is dependent on the resources beetles have for growth; the higher the value of Growth Index (GI) the more offspring and subsequently greater number of dispersers. As a result we have an ordered list of cells according to their capacity to push the spread onwards. By assigning a higher probability of detection and eradication to these key cells we can test whether the spatially targeted strategy would perform better than the strategy without prioritizing. Our modeling work had two parts. First, we built CPB Response Model based on species ecology. This model is an input for computing annual growth, dispersal, and overwintering resource layers. Secondly, we built the CPB Invasion Model which follows the annual sub steps of immigration, dispersal, reproduction, detection, eradication, quarantine, and overwintering. The spread simulations can be run by iterating these sub steps for a desirable number of years. The monitored outputs are cell-specific population numbers, number of commercial fields invaded, and the overall number of invaded cells in the landscape. Together, these two models provide a basis for a novel GIS-based Decision Support Suite. The predictive power of the CPB invasion model can be further enhanced by modeling the wind dispersal and overwintering mortality of the beetle with greater detail than in the current version. Overall, the main benefit of resource based approach is that it guides managers where to target surveillance and eradication measures in the mosaic landscape.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publication18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
    Subtitle of host publicationInterfacing Modelling and Simulation with Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Proceedings
    PublisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand
    Pages1957-1963
    Number of pages7
    ISBN (Print)9780975840078
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2009
    MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
    EventInternational Congress on Modelling and Simulation - Cairns, Australia
    Duration: 13 Jul 200917 Jul 2009

    Conference

    ConferenceInternational Congress on Modelling and Simulation
    CountryAustralia
    CityCairns
    Period13/07/200917/07/2009

    Keywords

    • Decision support tool
    • Invasions
    • Management strategies
    • Predictive modeling

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