Long term prediction of local ice loads on the hull of S.A. Agulhas II

S.A. Agulhas II was instrumented in Finland in 2012 to measure full scale ice-induced loads on the hull. After the ship was delivered to South Africa, she has visited Antarctic every year. The level ice thickness is obtained from the visual observations during voyages of S.A. Agulhas II to the Antarctic. The local ice loads on hull was measured by the strain gauges mounted on frames at the bow, bow shoulder and stern shoulder. The long-term full scale database of S.A. Agulhas II has been established since the summer in 2012-2013 and our analysis is based on seven-year measurements (2012/13 to 2018/19). A statistical model is applied to predict the long term ice load on the hull of S.A. Agulhas II. In this model, the long term ice load is evaluated by using the peak values during a specific time period, which means the method focuses on the statistics of extreme value. This method establishes a connection between the ice loads and the prevailing ice conditions by using the measured mean and standard deviation of ice thickness and considering the ice thickness distribution following the normal probability distribution. The ice load measurements are used as benchmark to validate long term prediction provided by the statistical model.